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Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

February 24, 2021 12:27PM
Quote
dzrams
You still seem to be missing a huge point: you don't have to get a Rodgers, Mahomes, or Brady if your QB is cheap. That's the significance of the fact that 14/31(45.2%) of Tier 2 and Tier 3 QBs made the final 4 had cheap contracts. That's nearly half! Tier 2/3 QBs CAN win and clearly do so often. They just can't be expensive.

I have responded to that point every single post in this increasingly unproductive exchange.

I keep saying that teams are not likely to ever believe in starting over every 4 years. That's regardless what you think your numbers tell them. (Because they are looking at far more than that.)

And btw there was a previous debate months ago where some folks claimed that big contracts for qbs held teams back. I used the final 4 quick test and showed that it split 50/50 which means there's no advantage either way. I said that months ago.

And either way since you used the last 10 years and the quick test template I set up, how many of the qbs on it since signed 2nd contracts? Or, like Allen, will soon?

It does not matter what those numbers presumably "demonstrate" -- they can't and don't demonstrate that it is wise to start over every 4 years.

Because, again, as I keep saying, no coach or GM considers the qb's contract to be the only determining factor in building a contender. It does not matter if some teams made it either with a rookie qb or a low paid back-up--that's just not going to be the only thing you look at when making decisions.

Here's what happens if you don't pay your qb at 2nd contract time. Either (1) they're a bust. Or (2) if they are considered starting caliber, if you don't sign them, someone else will.

We will never have a situation where one team says "this is a starting caliber qb but I won't pay him because I won't give 15% of the cap to a qb who isn't Brady, Mahomes, or Rodgers," and then other teams look at that qb and say "okay we won't sign him either even though we need a qb."

It's a qb starved league. Teams will pay for starting caliber qbs.

And then to get to the final 4 they will do other things besides think about the qb. What they won't do is say "did you see dz's numbers? Let;s start over every 4 years."

That's just how I see it. This is not a personal exchange for me. It's not like I am saying your belief that the Rams should promote internally is an anti-McVay message you came up with out of spite because you didn't want Goff to be traded, or something equally personally dismissive--I am not doing motives slams or pile-on flame posts. It's not like that. It's just how I see it--that no GM or coach is going to decide it is a wise policy to start over every 4 years at qb, which is what everything you're saying amounts to. I just don't see that happening.


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Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 02/24/2021 12:54PM by zn.
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

RockRam859February 22, 2021 10:58AM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams233February 22, 2021 11:36AM

  Agreed!

RockRam158February 22, 2021 11:59AM

  Re: Agreed!

dzrams114February 22, 2021 12:45PM

  Re: Agreed!

oldschoolramfan58February 23, 2021 04:53AM

  Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

Saguaro103February 23, 2021 06:33AM

  Re: Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

zn65February 23, 2021 06:44AM

  a thought on yer post, Sag...btw good to read ya again!...

SunTzu_vs_Camus55February 23, 2021 08:15AM

  I think this is a good point

zn44February 23, 2021 10:39AM

  Good post. Thx, STvC, and hope all is well with you, too!

Saguaro52February 23, 2021 12:27PM

  for the record

zn41February 23, 2021 02:05PM

  Re: for the record

dzrams35February 23, 2021 02:22PM

  Re: for the record

zn38February 23, 2021 02:42PM

  Re: for the record

dzrams29February 23, 2021 02:45PM

  agreed, zn...

SunTzu_vs_Camus30February 24, 2021 01:01AM

  Re: Good post. Thx, STvC, and hope all is well with you, too!

Rampage2K-39February 23, 2021 06:16PM

  yep, I agree with that....

SunTzu_vs_Camus30February 24, 2021 12:50AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-30February 24, 2021 07:31AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams4327February 24, 2021 07:50AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-28February 24, 2021 09:14AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams4325February 24, 2021 01:31PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-30February 24, 2021 01:58PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

dzrams22February 24, 2021 03:00PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams4321February 24, 2021 03:31PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

zn22February 24, 2021 04:17PM

  Know what might be interesting?

Rams4323February 24, 2021 05:14PM

  Re: Know what might be interesting?

zn26February 24, 2021 06:02PM

  Re: Looking at this from another angle ...

AlbaNY_Ram22February 26, 2021 03:44AM

  Re: Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

dzrams40February 23, 2021 02:42PM

  Lotta good points there, something I disagree with tho...

Saguaro41February 24, 2021 09:39AM

  Re: Fair point....nm

dzrams19February 24, 2021 09:44AM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn115February 22, 2021 12:07PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams72February 22, 2021 12:37PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn57February 22, 2021 12:51PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams51February 22, 2021 01:06PM

  I did the math myself

zn75February 22, 2021 01:17PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams1774February 22, 2021 01:31PM

  Question

DaJudge59February 22, 2021 02:34PM

  Re: Question

dzrams44February 22, 2021 03:07PM

  Re: Question

zn39February 22, 2021 07:09PM

  Re: Question

dzrams37February 22, 2021 07:31PM

  Re: Question

Leoram37February 23, 2021 02:30AM

  Re: Question

zn40February 23, 2021 04:18AM

  Re: Question

dzrams26February 23, 2021 08:12PM

  Cowboys about to find out if they don't sign Dak

BumRap28February 24, 2021 09:15AM

  Re: Cowboys about to find out if they don't sign Dak

dzrams22February 24, 2021 09:27AM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn56February 22, 2021 02:48PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams41February 22, 2021 03:11PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn31February 22, 2021 03:58PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams35February 22, 2021 06:24PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn35February 22, 2021 06:37PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams34February 22, 2021 07:20PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn25February 22, 2021 07:23PM

  You're absolutely right.

Ram_Ruler60February 22, 2021 01:23PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

Rams4348February 22, 2021 03:11PM

  Interesting Premise... I Agree

LoboRam20February 23, 2021 06:28PM

  Good posts Rock and Dz

Coy Bacon84February 22, 2021 05:23PM

  Re: Good posts Rock and Dz

zn58February 22, 2021 05:40PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn47February 22, 2021 06:57PM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams69February 23, 2021 08:05PM

  Wow. That's some amazing research you did.

RockRam33February 24, 2021 01:58AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

AlbaNY_Ram29February 24, 2021 03:21AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

Leoram31February 24, 2021 04:11AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn41February 24, 2021 07:14AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams26February 24, 2021 09:06AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn19February 24, 2021 10:04AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams22February 24, 2021 10:25AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn19February 24, 2021 10:39AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams20February 24, 2021 11:38AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn19February 24, 2021 11:55AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams21February 24, 2021 12:12PM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn25February 24, 2021 12:27PM

  There are several things about McVay that I ‘know’ to be true...

Rams4360February 24, 2021 07:44AM

  Re: There are several things about McVay that I ‘know’ to be true...

zn37February 24, 2021 08:08AM

  A lot of assumptions to make us seem brilliant

BumRap43February 24, 2021 09:01AM