Welcome! Log In Create A New Profile

Advanced

Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

February 23, 2021 08:05PM
Earlier in this thread zn and Leoram presented good challenges and asked good questions but in doing so misstated my position (and likely RockRams too). Their respective statements/questions were ‘does Stafford guarantee a better shot of winning a championship game?’ and ‘paying them [a Tier 1 QB] is no guarantee of consistent success.’

They both use the word ‘guarantee’ in a way that actually flips my argument. I don’t contend that a Tier 1 QB guarantees consistent success. My argument is that being a Tier 2/3 QB AND being highly paid nearly guarantees NO consistent success.

To illustrate, I went back and evaluated the contracts and salary cap numbers of zn’s list above of QBs that have gone to the Championship game or Super Bowl in the last 10 years. In total it’s 40 QBs, 4 each year.

Here’s what I found:

  • 40% of the time (16/40 QBs) the QB in the Championship game or Super Bowl was on an expensive contract (over 10% of the cap)
  • 13 out of those 16 expensive QBS were Tier 1 QBs.
  • 60% of the time (24/40 QBs) the QB in the Championship game or Super Bowl is on a cheap contract (under 10% of the cap)
  • 3 out of 40 QBs in the conference Championship game or Super Bowl were Tier 2/3 QBs AND over 10% of the cap – It’s only happened 7.5% of the time.

Conclusions:

1) By far, the best window for teams is when your QB is on his rookie contract.

2) Based on these historical numbers, Tier 1 QBs on huge contracts (more than 10% of the cap) have at least a 5 times greater chance (40% vs. 7.5%) of making it deep into the playoffs than Tier 2/3 QBs.

3) Brady is probably an all-time great QB partially because he left money on the table for his team to spend. 4 out of his 9 years he went to the conference championship game or SB, he was under that 10% total cap number.

4) Being a Tier 1 QB in itself does not guarantee a deep playoff run or the playoffs at all.

5) Being a Tier 2 or Tier 3 QB on a huge contract (more than 10% of the cap) almost GUARANTEES they will NOT make it deep into the playoffs – i.e. it’s only happened 7.5% of the time.
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

RockRam1564February 22, 2021 10:58AM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams701February 22, 2021 11:36AM

  Agreed!

RockRam382February 22, 2021 11:59AM

  Re: Agreed!

dzrams589February 22, 2021 12:45PM

  Re: Agreed!

oldschoolramfan443February 23, 2021 04:53AM

  Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

Saguaro418February 23, 2021 06:33AM

  Re: Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

zn386February 23, 2021 06:44AM

  a thought on yer post, Sag...btw good to read ya again!...

SunTzu_vs_Camus512February 23, 2021 08:15AM

  I think this is a good point

zn300February 23, 2021 10:39AM

  Good post. Thx, STvC, and hope all is well with you, too!

Saguaro440February 23, 2021 12:27PM

  for the record

zn321February 23, 2021 02:05PM

  Re: for the record

dzrams487February 23, 2021 02:22PM

  Re: for the record

zn301February 23, 2021 02:42PM

  Re: for the record

dzrams258February 23, 2021 02:45PM

  agreed, zn...

SunTzu_vs_Camus460February 24, 2021 01:01AM

  Re: Good post. Thx, STvC, and hope all is well with you, too!

Rampage2K-279February 23, 2021 06:16PM

  yep, I agree with that....

SunTzu_vs_Camus300February 24, 2021 12:50AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-258February 24, 2021 07:31AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams43312February 24, 2021 07:50AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-541February 24, 2021 09:14AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams43463February 24, 2021 01:31PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-267February 24, 2021 01:58PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

dzrams409February 24, 2021 03:00PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams43391February 24, 2021 03:31PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

zn269February 24, 2021 04:17PM

  Know what might be interesting?

Rams43248February 24, 2021 05:14PM

  Re: Know what might be interesting?

zn279February 24, 2021 06:02PM

  Re: Looking at this from another angle ...

AlbaNY_Ram262February 26, 2021 03:44AM

  Re: Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

dzrams289February 23, 2021 02:42PM

  Lotta good points there, something I disagree with tho...

Saguaro593February 24, 2021 09:39AM

  Re: Fair point....nm

dzrams281February 24, 2021 09:44AM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn686February 22, 2021 12:07PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams340February 22, 2021 12:37PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn399February 22, 2021 12:51PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams382February 22, 2021 01:06PM

  I did the math myself

zn289February 22, 2021 01:17PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams2542February 22, 2021 01:31PM

  Question

DaJudge324February 22, 2021 02:34PM

  Re: Question

dzrams385February 22, 2021 03:07PM

  Re: Question

zn317February 22, 2021 07:09PM

  Re: Question

dzrams301February 22, 2021 07:31PM

  Re: Question

Leoram317February 23, 2021 02:30AM

  Re: Question

zn280February 23, 2021 04:18AM

  Re: Question

dzrams295February 23, 2021 08:12PM

  Cowboys about to find out if they don't sign Dak

BumRap412February 24, 2021 09:15AM

  Re: Cowboys about to find out if they don't sign Dak

dzrams301February 24, 2021 09:27AM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn298February 22, 2021 02:48PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams282February 22, 2021 03:11PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn302February 22, 2021 03:58PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams335February 22, 2021 06:24PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn480February 22, 2021 06:37PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams280February 22, 2021 07:20PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn679February 22, 2021 07:23PM

  You're absolutely right.

Ram_Ruler318February 22, 2021 01:23PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

Rams43351February 22, 2021 03:11PM

  Interesting Premise... I Agree

LoboRam298February 23, 2021 06:28PM

  Good posts Rock and Dz

Coy Bacon440February 22, 2021 05:23PM

  Re: Good posts Rock and Dz

zn406February 22, 2021 05:40PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn325February 22, 2021 06:57PM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams353February 23, 2021 08:05PM

  Wow. That's some amazing research you did.

RockRam308February 24, 2021 01:58AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

AlbaNY_Ram302February 24, 2021 03:21AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

Leoram315February 24, 2021 04:11AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn387February 24, 2021 07:14AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams404February 24, 2021 09:06AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn421February 24, 2021 10:04AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams306February 24, 2021 10:25AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn408February 24, 2021 10:39AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams302February 24, 2021 11:38AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn524February 24, 2021 11:55AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams264February 24, 2021 12:12PM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn369February 24, 2021 12:27PM

  There are several things about McVay that I ‘know’ to be true...

Rams43297February 24, 2021 07:44AM

  Re: There are several things about McVay that I ‘know’ to be true...

zn316February 24, 2021 08:08AM

  A lot of assumptions to make us seem brilliant

BumRap382February 24, 2021 09:01AM