Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

Earlier in this thread zn and Leoram presented good challenges and asked good questions but in doing so misstated my position (and likely RockRams too). Their respective statements/questions were ‘does Stafford guarantee a better shot of winning a championship game?’ and ‘paying them [a Tier 1 QB] is no guarantee of consistent success.’

They both use the word ‘guarantee’ in a way that actually flips my argument. I don’t contend that a Tier 1 QB guarantees consistent success. My argument is that being a Tier 2/3 QB AND being highly paid nearly guarantees NO consistent success.

To illustrate, I went back and evaluated the contracts and salary cap numbers of zn’s list above of QBs that have gone to the Championship game or Super Bowl in the last 10 years. In total it’s 40 QBs, 4 each year.

Here’s what I found:

• 40% of the time (16/40 QBs) the QB in the Championship game or Super Bowl was on an expensive contract (over 10% of the cap)
• 13 out of those 16 expensive QBS were Tier 1 QBs.
• 60% of the time (24/40 QBs) the QB in the Championship game or Super Bowl is on a cheap contract (under 10% of the cap)
• 3 out of 40 QBs in the conference Championship game or Super Bowl were Tier 2/3 QBs AND over 10% of the cap – It’s only happened 7.5% of the time.

Conclusions:

1) By far, the best window for teams is when your QB is on his rookie contract.

2) Based on these historical numbers, Tier 1 QBs on huge contracts (more than 10% of the cap) have at least a 5 times greater chance (40% vs. 7.5%) of making it deep into the playoffs than Tier 2/3 QBs.

3) Brady is probably an all-time great QB partially because he left money on the table for his team to spend. 4 out of his 9 years he went to the conference championship game or SB, he was under that 10% total cap number.

4) Being a Tier 1 QB in itself does not guarantee a deep playoff run or the playoffs at all.

5) Being a Tier 2 or Tier 3 QB on a huge contract (more than 10% of the cap) almost GUARANTEES they will NOT make it deep into the playoffs – i.e. it’s only happened 7.5% of the time.