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Re: I did the math myself

February 22, 2021 06:24PM
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zn
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dzrams
I'm not looking for guarantees. But a Tier 1 QB does give you the best chance of competing deep into the playoffs on an annual basis.

Secondly, I know Bortles and Keenum for sure were not expensive when they led their teams to the SB so they don't fit the parameters. I'm specifically speaking of not paying that caliber of QB a huge 2nd contract like what happened with Goff/Wentz. Of the top of my head I don't know if Flacco or Ryan were highly paid when they got there multiple times but I see them as exceptions.

EDIT: I have no problem building around a Tier 2 or 3 QB if they're cheap. In such cases, you'd have the entire salary cap to afford great players in other positions. Once the QB becomes just as expensive as Rodgers or Mahomes, he doesn't need to be equally as good but he certainly needs to be in their range - i.e. Tier 1.

There are no guys on that list of all 22 qbs who meet your definition of below tier 1 and only appeared once AND were not on back-up money contracts? Nobody? Okay subtract Bortles and Keenum and put in Newton and Garappolo, who had signed big 2nd contracts before they got this high in the playoffs.

I think all your claims here are tilted by Brady. Subtract him and you have 2 guys with more than 3 appearances. And Brady is an exception compared to all qbs in NFL history, not just the last 10 years.

The alternative to paying your qb is starting over at qb. Now do the numbers on teams that start over at qb.

Plus there's the assumption that every tier 2 or 3 qb is always that. I've looked at Stafford's 5th year numbers before in a completely different context but I remember them. Was Stafford a tier one qb in 2013? 19th in passer rating, 15th in TD percentage, 30th in completion percentage? You have to make a decision on the 2nd contract--keep the qb or move on. Was Stafford 1st tier then?

I'm not entirely sure you're understanding my position. Newton was on his rookie contract when they went deep into the playoffs so he was cheap and the team could afford to build around him.

Garappolo is Exhibit A in what I wouldn't do. He was an expensive 2nd contract which is crippling the team. However, the 49ers are coming to their senses and want to move on. I never would have paid him.

To make my point clearer, I went over every QB below Tier 1 on your list and evaluated their contract situation. There were NO players below Tier 1 that went to the conference championship game or beyond that accounted for 10% or more of the cap besides two exceptions. Matt Ryan and Eli Manning.

See below...

Flacco – Flacco teams went on deep playoff runs from 2011-2012. His cap number was 5.725$ for 4.8% and $8M for 6.6% of the cap in 2011 and 2012 respectively. The Ravens were smart and didn’t pay him a huge 2nd contract like Tier 1 QBs were getting.

Eli – Won the SB in 2011 with a cap number of $14.1M and 11.7% of the total cap.

Smith – Smith’s cap number was $4.9M for 4.1% of the cap when he went to the conference championship in 2011. Basically, he was cheap, and they could afford to build the team around him.

Kaepernick x2 – Kap was extremely cheap both times his team went on deep playoff runs. In 2012, his cap number was $1.16M; in 2013 his cap number was $1.4M. Both years were approx. 1% of the total cap.

Ryan x2 – Ryan was expensive both times he went to the conference championship game. In 2012, he was 11.2% of the cap; in 2016 he was 15% of the cap.

Luck – On his rookie contract when he went to the conference championship game.

Newton – Newton was in the 5th year of his rookie contract when he went to the SB in 2015. His cap number was $8.5M which was only 8.7% of the total cap. Basically, he was cheap, and they could afford to build the team around him.

Palmer – Palmer’s cap number was $7.375M in 2015 when he went to the conference championship. That was only 5% of the cap which is not a typical 2nd contract amount. Basically, he was cheap, and they could afford to build the team around him.

Roethlisberger – Big Ben was on his 2nd contract when they won the Super Bowl in 2010. However, his cap number was only 8.4% of the cap. QB salaries have drastically reason since then where now QBs on 2nd contracts get 15% of the total cap. That’s insane! The second time he made the conference championship was in 2016 when his cap number was approx. $24M for 15.3% of the cap. At that point, he’s probably not worth it which is why that team hasn’t done much since then. FWIW, I have Roethlisberger on the Tier 1 cusp. He's probably a Tier 2 in actuality.

Foles/Wentz – Foles cap number was $1.6M in 2017 when they won the Super Bowl. Went’s cap number was $6M. Total of $7.6M spent on the QB position.

Keenum - Cap number was $1.9M on his deep playoff run in 2017.

Bortles – On his rookie contract when he went to the conference championship game.

Tannehill – Cap number was $2.25M in 2019 when he went to the conference championship game.

Garappolo – On his 2nd contract. 49ers are coming to their senses and want to move on. I never would have paid him.

Allen – Cheap. On his rookie contract.

Conclusion: There are two Tier 2 QBs and no Tier 3 QBs that have gone to the conference championship in the last 10 years that were paid more than 10% of the total cap. Thus, I would not give a huge contract that is 10%+ of the total cap to a Tier 2 or Tier 3 QB. No exceptions!!!!

And your point on Stafford is a good one. It actually supports my point. If the QB hasn't demonstrated they are a Tier 1 QB, don't build around them! Do you see Detroit's results when they didn't heed this approach? They would have been better off not building around Stafford.
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

RockRam818February 22, 2021 10:58AM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams203February 22, 2021 11:36AM

  Agreed!

RockRam137February 22, 2021 11:59AM

  Re: Agreed!

dzrams98February 22, 2021 12:45PM

  Re: Agreed!

oldschoolramfan42February 23, 2021 04:53AM

  Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

Saguaro77February 23, 2021 06:33AM

  Re: Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

zn53February 23, 2021 06:44AM

  a thought on yer post, Sag...btw good to read ya again!...

SunTzu_vs_Camus41February 23, 2021 08:15AM

  I think this is a good point

zn33February 23, 2021 10:39AM

  Good post. Thx, STvC, and hope all is well with you, too!

Saguaro38February 23, 2021 12:27PM

  for the record

zn32February 23, 2021 02:05PM

  Re: for the record

dzrams25February 23, 2021 02:22PM

  Re: for the record

zn28February 23, 2021 02:42PM

  Re: for the record

dzrams20February 23, 2021 02:45PM

  agreed, zn...

SunTzu_vs_Camus21February 24, 2021 01:01AM

  Re: Good post. Thx, STvC, and hope all is well with you, too!

Rampage2K-26February 23, 2021 06:16PM

  yep, I agree with that....

SunTzu_vs_Camus19February 24, 2021 12:50AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-21February 24, 2021 07:31AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams4316February 24, 2021 07:50AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-18February 24, 2021 09:14AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams4314February 24, 2021 01:31PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-20February 24, 2021 01:58PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

dzrams12February 24, 2021 03:00PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams4312February 24, 2021 03:31PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

zn13February 24, 2021 04:17PM

  Know what might be interesting?

Rams4314February 24, 2021 05:14PM

  Re: Know what might be interesting?

zn16February 24, 2021 06:02PM

  Re: Looking at this from another angle ...

AlbaNY_Ram12February 26, 2021 03:44AM

  Re: Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

dzrams31February 23, 2021 02:42PM

  Lotta good points there, something I disagree with tho...

Saguaro25February 24, 2021 09:39AM

  Re: Fair point....nm

dzrams9February 24, 2021 09:44AM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn103February 22, 2021 12:07PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams62February 22, 2021 12:37PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn48February 22, 2021 12:51PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams42February 22, 2021 01:06PM

  I did the math myself

zn61February 22, 2021 01:17PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams1000February 22, 2021 01:31PM

  Question

DaJudge46February 22, 2021 02:34PM

  Re: Question

dzrams35February 22, 2021 03:07PM

  Re: Question

zn28February 22, 2021 07:09PM

  Re: Question

dzrams29February 22, 2021 07:31PM

  Re: Question

Leoram24February 23, 2021 02:30AM

  Re: Question

zn29February 23, 2021 04:18AM

  Re: Question

dzrams15February 23, 2021 08:12PM

  Cowboys about to find out if they don't sign Dak

BumRap16February 24, 2021 09:15AM

  Re: Cowboys about to find out if they don't sign Dak

dzrams11February 24, 2021 09:27AM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn42February 22, 2021 02:48PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams31February 22, 2021 03:11PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn22February 22, 2021 03:58PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams25February 22, 2021 06:24PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn24February 22, 2021 06:37PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams22February 22, 2021 07:20PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn17February 22, 2021 07:23PM

  You're absolutely right.

Ram_Ruler51February 22, 2021 01:23PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

Rams4339February 22, 2021 03:11PM

  Interesting Premise... I Agree

LoboRam11February 23, 2021 06:28PM

  Good posts Rock and Dz

Coy Bacon65February 22, 2021 05:23PM

  Re: Good posts Rock and Dz

zn48February 22, 2021 05:40PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn35February 22, 2021 06:57PM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams56February 23, 2021 08:05PM

  Wow. That's some amazing research you did.

RockRam24February 24, 2021 01:58AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

AlbaNY_Ram19February 24, 2021 03:21AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

Leoram22February 24, 2021 04:11AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn28February 24, 2021 07:14AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams17February 24, 2021 09:06AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn10February 24, 2021 10:04AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams10February 24, 2021 10:25AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn11February 24, 2021 10:39AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams9February 24, 2021 11:38AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn9February 24, 2021 11:55AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams11February 24, 2021 12:12PM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn15February 24, 2021 12:27PM

  There are several things about McVay that I ‘know’ to be true...

Rams4342February 24, 2021 07:44AM

  Re: There are several things about McVay that I ‘know’ to be true...

zn28February 24, 2021 08:08AM

  A lot of assumptions to make us seem brilliant

BumRap29February 24, 2021 09:01AM