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Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

February 24, 2021 12:12PM
Quote
zn
Quote
dzrams


With QB salaries relative to the total cap rising (15%+ is typical now where 10 years ago it was more in the 10-12% range), I stand by my prediction that eventually teams who don't have Tier 1 QBs will be willing to start over.

Yeah I doubt that happens.

Especially when more teams take the young cast-offs and do better with them than they could with draft picks.

Either way we disagree on a prediction.

If you were just saying I want this to happen, or I prefer this would happen, etc. ... well okay.

But it ignores too much to just look at qb data in isolation and act like coaches and GMs ONLY consider that.

Coaches know that starting over every 4 years does not lead to a lot of final 4 appearances.

And they know if all your eggs are in the qb basket to make it, then, you never go anywhere unless you get Rodgers, Mahomes, or Brady.

Look at all the qbs drafted from 2000 (Brady's year) to 2018 (which, being 3 years ago, is far enough back to judge). It's 236 (not counting undrafted qbs). What percentage of those were Ridgers, Mahomes, or Brady? About 1.3%.

Yet you risk not going anywhere if you start over every 4 years hoping to get a 1.3% qb.

...

You still seem to be missing a huge point: you don't have to get a Rodgers, Mahomes, or Brady if your QB is cheap. That's the significance of the fact that 14/31(45.2%) of Tier 2 and Tier 3 QBs made the final 4 had cheap contracts. That's nearly half! Tier 2/3 QBs CAN win and clearly do so often. They just can't be expensive.

Also, when the QB is cheap, all the eggs are literally not in the QB basket because there is so much more money to spend on other positions.

With careful reading zn you would have noticed that nowhere did I say that GMs/coaches ONLY consider QB data in isolation. But I know for a fact that they consider it and the contractual situations as a huge factor?

How do I know this? Because Snead repeatedly talked about the Rams window to win while Goff was cheap. That's why they were all in 2018.

I'd dispute your claim that coaches know that starting over every 4 years does not lead to a lot of final 4 appearances. I don't know a team that's tried this approach yet. Conventional wisdom holds that it doesn't lead to winning but a contrary innovative approach would have to actually be tested first for them to KNOW it can't work.

But it's fine if we disagree on my prediction. This wouldn't be the first time we disagreed and I turned out to be right! Lol (of course there are also the times I'm wrong.)
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

RockRam859February 22, 2021 10:58AM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams233February 22, 2021 11:36AM

  Agreed!

RockRam158February 22, 2021 11:59AM

  Re: Agreed!

dzrams114February 22, 2021 12:45PM

  Re: Agreed!

oldschoolramfan58February 23, 2021 04:53AM

  Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

Saguaro103February 23, 2021 06:33AM

  Re: Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

zn65February 23, 2021 06:44AM

  a thought on yer post, Sag...btw good to read ya again!...

SunTzu_vs_Camus55February 23, 2021 08:15AM

  I think this is a good point

zn44February 23, 2021 10:39AM

  Good post. Thx, STvC, and hope all is well with you, too!

Saguaro52February 23, 2021 12:27PM

  for the record

zn41February 23, 2021 02:05PM

  Re: for the record

dzrams34February 23, 2021 02:22PM

  Re: for the record

zn38February 23, 2021 02:42PM

  Re: for the record

dzrams28February 23, 2021 02:45PM

  agreed, zn...

SunTzu_vs_Camus30February 24, 2021 01:01AM

  Re: Good post. Thx, STvC, and hope all is well with you, too!

Rampage2K-39February 23, 2021 06:16PM

  yep, I agree with that....

SunTzu_vs_Camus29February 24, 2021 12:50AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-30February 24, 2021 07:31AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams4327February 24, 2021 07:50AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-27February 24, 2021 09:14AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams4325February 24, 2021 01:31PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-30February 24, 2021 01:58PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

dzrams21February 24, 2021 03:00PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams4321February 24, 2021 03:31PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

zn22February 24, 2021 04:17PM

  Know what might be interesting?

Rams4322February 24, 2021 05:14PM

  Re: Know what might be interesting?

zn25February 24, 2021 06:02PM

  Re: Looking at this from another angle ...

AlbaNY_Ram22February 26, 2021 03:44AM

  Re: Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

dzrams40February 23, 2021 02:42PM

  Lotta good points there, something I disagree with tho...

Saguaro41February 24, 2021 09:39AM

  Re: Fair point....nm

dzrams18February 24, 2021 09:44AM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn115February 22, 2021 12:07PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams72February 22, 2021 12:37PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn57February 22, 2021 12:51PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams51February 22, 2021 01:06PM

  I did the math myself

zn75February 22, 2021 01:17PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams1774February 22, 2021 01:31PM

  Question

DaJudge59February 22, 2021 02:34PM

  Re: Question

dzrams44February 22, 2021 03:07PM

  Re: Question

zn39February 22, 2021 07:09PM

  Re: Question

dzrams37February 22, 2021 07:31PM

  Re: Question

Leoram37February 23, 2021 02:30AM

  Re: Question

zn40February 23, 2021 04:18AM

  Re: Question

dzrams26February 23, 2021 08:12PM

  Cowboys about to find out if they don't sign Dak

BumRap28February 24, 2021 09:15AM

  Re: Cowboys about to find out if they don't sign Dak

dzrams21February 24, 2021 09:27AM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn56February 22, 2021 02:48PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams41February 22, 2021 03:11PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn31February 22, 2021 03:58PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams35February 22, 2021 06:24PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn35February 22, 2021 06:37PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams34February 22, 2021 07:20PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn25February 22, 2021 07:23PM

  You're absolutely right.

Ram_Ruler60February 22, 2021 01:23PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

Rams4348February 22, 2021 03:11PM

  Interesting Premise... I Agree

LoboRam20February 23, 2021 06:28PM

  Good posts Rock and Dz

Coy Bacon84February 22, 2021 05:23PM

  Re: Good posts Rock and Dz

zn58February 22, 2021 05:40PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn47February 22, 2021 06:57PM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams68February 23, 2021 08:05PM

  Wow. That's some amazing research you did.

RockRam33February 24, 2021 01:58AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

AlbaNY_Ram28February 24, 2021 03:21AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

Leoram31February 24, 2021 04:11AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn41February 24, 2021 07:14AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams26February 24, 2021 09:06AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn19February 24, 2021 10:04AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams21February 24, 2021 10:25AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn19February 24, 2021 10:39AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams20February 24, 2021 11:38AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn19February 24, 2021 11:55AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams20February 24, 2021 12:12PM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn25February 24, 2021 12:27PM

  There are several things about McVay that I ‘know’ to be true...

Rams4359February 24, 2021 07:44AM

  Re: There are several things about McVay that I ‘know’ to be true...

zn37February 24, 2021 08:08AM

  A lot of assumptions to make us seem brilliant

BumRap43February 24, 2021 09:01AM