Re: I did the math myself

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zn

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dzrams

Quote
zn
I'll do it myself.

QBs to reach a championship game in the last 10 years.

Flacco x 2
Brady x 9
Eli
Smith
Kaepernick x2
Ryan x2
Manning x2
Wilson x 2
Luck
Rodgers x4
Newton
Palmer
Roethlisberger
Foles/Wentz
Keenum
Bortles
Mahomes x3
Goff
Brees
Tannehill
Garappolo
Allen

That's 22 qbs. There's only 3 who made it more than twice--Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes. What are the odds for or against drafting a Brady, Rodgers, or Mahomes?

So what do the other 29 teams do...just quit?

And the list includes some top tier qbs who at most made it twice but usually just made it once: I count Brees, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Luck, Wilson, and Ryan.

Both Rock and I are saying the same thing and it wasn't to just quit.

A careful reading would alert you to our position that we wouldn't give a huge 2nd contract to most of those QBs. I'd rather keep churning like KC did when they had Alex Smith but drafted Mahomes.

On that list, the only QBs I for sure would commit huge dollars to are:

Brady
Manning
Wilson
Rodgers
Mahomes
Brees
Roethlisberger - this one is a maybe.

The first 6 names account for 5/8 of the QBs who have been to the championship game multiple times.

There are some good QBs on the list that I would move on from after they were no longer cheap.

I didn't say you were saying just quit. That was a quip intended to drive home a point. Or rather several points. First, tier 1 qbs do not guarantee you anything. Look at the list of guys who only got there once or twice.

Your list? Take out the big 3, and it's 6 out of a possible 40 spots (40 because 4 x 10 years).

You end up with the same numbers on your list if you take out Brees, Roethlisberger, Manning, and Wilson and put in Flacco, Ryan, Bortles, and Keenum.

....

I'm not looking for guarantees. But a Tier 1 QB does give you the best chance of competing deep into the playoffs on an annual basis.

Secondly, I know Bortles and Keenum for sure were not expensive when they led their teams to the SB so they don't fit the parameters. I'm specifically speaking of not paying that caliber of QB a huge 2nd contract like what happened with Goff/Wentz. Of the top of my head I don't know if Flacco or Ryan were highly paid when they got there multiple times but I see them as exceptions.

EDIT: I have no problem building around a Tier 2 or 3 QB if they're cheap. In such cases, you'd have the entire salary cap to afford great players in other positions. Once the QB becomes just as expensive as Rodgers or Mahomes, he doesn't need to be equally as good but he certainly needs to be in their range - i.e. Tier 1.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/22/2021 03:16PM by dzrams.