Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

Quote
dzrams


With QB salaries relative to the total cap rising (15%+ is typical now where 10 years ago it was more in the 10-12% range), I stand by my prediction that eventually teams who don't have Tier 1 QBs will be willing to start over.

Yeah I doubt that happens.

Especially when more teams take the young cast-offs and do better with them than they could with draft picks.

Either way we disagree on a prediction.

If you were just saying I want this to happen, or I prefer this would happen, etc. ... well okay.

But it ignores too much to just look at qb data in isolation and act like coaches and GMs ONLY consider that.

Coaches know that starting over every 4 years does not lead to a lot of final 4 appearances.

And they know if all your eggs are in the qb basket to make it, then, you never go anywhere unless you get Rodgers, Mahomes, or Brady.

Look at all the qbs drafted from 2000 (Brady's year) to 2018 (which, being 3 years ago, is far enough back to judge). It's 236 (not counting undrafted qbs). What percentage of those were Ridgers, Mahomes, or Brady? About 1.3%.

Yet you risk not going anywhere if you start over every 4 years hoping to get a 1.3% qb. An example of the effect of that. Why was Stafford available? Because he was sick of starting over. Well that's true of all players. If in a nice 10 year career at LOT you saw your team start over 3 times, wouldn't you bail on them first chance you got?

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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/24/2021 12:01PM by zn.