Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

Quote
dzrams
Actually, I took your framework of looking at the final 4 QBs across 10 years and just added flesh to it by looking into their contractual situations. Your initial framework only factored in the QB so if there are flaws with this approach,

I wasn't doing what you are doing. You completely misunderstood what I was doing with the final 4 qbs thing. That was just a response to you. You set up a context where all we look at is a qb with the presumed tier1 tier2 thing, and I was showing that even just looking at that alone, your numbers do not work. That's all I was demonstrating.

And that's no answer. Either it's a mistake to focus only on the qb or it's not. Misunderstanding what I did does not answer that.

I never made a claim that this is all you must have or it's the only big factor or any of that. I never set out to prove what is needed for a team to be in the final 4. If I did I would correlate it with the defense and offensive scoring.

All did was show that your numbers do not work even for what you were claiming.

Outside of Brady--whose 9 appearances in the big 4 is a huge exception that does not prove anything except sign Brady--there are only 2 qbs with both tier 1 designations and big contracts who made it to the final 4. (And Mahomes had that contract in only 1 of his 3 games). But counting Mahomes anyway, that's 7 appearances out of 40 that are not Brady. Now subtracting Brady, that's 7 of 31 which is less than 25%. (If you move Mahomes to the even RARER "tier 1 qb with a rookie contract," which accounts for 2 of his games, then it's even less.)

Less than 25% if you count Mahomes. And that's just considering the qbs alone without getting to the much more real question which is why focus only on the qb anyway.

I honestly do not believe that just doing a couple of sets of numbers on qbs proves anything about what it takes for a team to make it to the final 4. I also don;t think tier 1 or 2 taken by itself means anything without other factors. (For one thing, tiers are not permanent for every qb. They can move up or down. Stafford did, for example.)

I would like to see a correlation that includes qb, offensive scoring, and defensive ranking (points and yards) and even then I would be pretty sure I was leaving factors out.

The only safe things the numbers show is this: sign Tom Brady.



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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/24/2021 10:15AM by zn.