Re: I did the math myself

Quote
dzrams
I'm not looking for guarantees. But a Tier 1 QB does give you the best chance of competing deep into the playoffs on an annual basis.

Secondly, I know Bortles and Keenum for sure were not expensive when they led their teams to the SB so they don't fit the parameters. I'm specifically speaking of not paying that caliber of QB a huge 2nd contract like what happened with Goff/Wentz. Of the top of my head I don't know if Flacco or Ryan were highly paid when they got there multiple times but I see them as exceptions.

EDIT: I have no problem building around a Tier 2 or 3 QB if they're cheap. In such cases, you'd have the entire salary cap to afford great players in other positions. Once the QB becomes just as expensive as Rodgers or Mahomes, he doesn't need to be equally as good but he certainly needs to be in their range - i.e. Tier 1.

There are no guys on that list of all 22 qbs who meet your definition of below tier 1 and only appeared once AND were not on back-up money contracts? Nobody? Okay subtract Bortles and Keenum and put in Newton and Garappolo, who had signed big 2nd contracts before they got this high in the playoffs.

I think all your claims here are tilted by Brady. Subtract him and you have 2 guys with more than 3 appearances. And Brady is an exception compared to all qbs in NFL history, not just the last 10 years.

The alternative to paying your qb is starting over at qb. Now do the numbers on teams that start over at qb.

Plus there's the assumption that every tier 2 or 3 qb is always that. I've looked at Stafford's 5th year numbers before in a completely different context but I remember them. Was Stafford a tier one qb in 2013? 19th in passer rating, 15th in TD percentage, 30th in completion percentage? You have to make a decision on the 2nd contract--keep the qb or move on. Was Stafford 1st tier then?