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Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

February 24, 2021 11:38AM
Quote
zn
Quote
dzrams

My claim: "eventually teams will stop giving huge 2nd contracts to the Tier 2 and Tier 3 QBs..."

You then brought up 10 years' worth of final 4 QBs. How does that show my numbers don't work?

If you want to see the correlation of all the factors you list, that's fine, do the research on it. But that stuff completely misses my point which was focused on the correlation between winning QBs and money.

Red bit. I doubt that happens. Unless you honestly imagine teams would be willing to start over at qb every 4 years. I mean teams know that it takes more than just a top qb to win, they know there are at best only 3-4 top qbs any give decade, and they know that they can't start over every single 4 year window until they land one of the top 3-4 guys.

If you want to know why and how your numbers don't work, re-read my post. I spell it out. It's simple. Subtract Brady, who is an averages breaking exception to all numbers on this, and teams with elite qbs who make it to the final 4 more than 1-2 times in ten years = 25% of the total. And even then all that 25% tells you is, if you can't sign Brady, sign Rodgers or Mahomes. That's it, that's all it tells you.

But I bet that if we did the final 4 40 games again and asked how many teams that start over at qb every 4 years makes it, it wouldn't be very many (if any).

In terms of missing points, how about this for an example: [ramsrule.com]

Ah, but my claim is not that a team must have a Tier 1 QB.

Even if we were to subtract Brady (which I disagree with since that in itself distorts the analysis), here's what I have on the remaining 31 QBs:

6/31(19.4%) - Tier 1 QBs, Big contracts, multiple final 4 appearances in 10 years (Rodgers 4x, Manning 2x)

2/31(6.5%) - Tier 1 QBs, Big contracts, But No multiple final 4 appearances in 10 years (Brees, Roethlisberger)

6/31(19.4%) - Tier 1 QBs, Small contracts (Wilson 2x, Mahomes 3x (rookie contract from '17-'20), Allen 1x (counting him as Tier 1 but that's arguable.)

3/31(9.7%) - Tier 2 and Tier 3 QB, Big contracts, ANY final 4 appearances (Ryan 2x, Eli 1x)

14/31(45.2%) - Tier 2 and Tier 3 QB, Small contracts


QBs on small contracts get to the final 4 approx. 65% of the time. Thus, my argument is not that every team should try to have a Tier 1 QB.

It's that 1) small contracts give you the best shot to make it to the final 4, 2) if you must have a big contract QB, make sure it's a Tier 1 guy, and 3) there's a very small chance (10%) of making it to the final 4 with a highly paid Tier 2/3 QB.

Even with Brady, the numbers support my claim. Paying Tier 2/3 QBs big money almost guarantees that team doesn't go deep into the playoffs.

With QB salaries relative to the total cap rising (15%+ is typical now where 10 years ago it was more in the 10-12% range), I stand by my prediction that eventually teams who don't have Tier 1 QBs will be willing to start over.
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

RockRam1562February 22, 2021 10:58AM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams698February 22, 2021 11:36AM

  Agreed!

RockRam380February 22, 2021 11:59AM

  Re: Agreed!

dzrams583February 22, 2021 12:45PM

  Re: Agreed!

oldschoolramfan441February 23, 2021 04:53AM

  Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

Saguaro417February 23, 2021 06:33AM

  Re: Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

zn384February 23, 2021 06:44AM

  a thought on yer post, Sag...btw good to read ya again!...

SunTzu_vs_Camus509February 23, 2021 08:15AM

  I think this is a good point

zn298February 23, 2021 10:39AM

  Good post. Thx, STvC, and hope all is well with you, too!

Saguaro438February 23, 2021 12:27PM

  for the record

zn317February 23, 2021 02:05PM

  Re: for the record

dzrams474February 23, 2021 02:22PM

  Re: for the record

zn299February 23, 2021 02:42PM

  Re: for the record

dzrams255February 23, 2021 02:45PM

  agreed, zn...

SunTzu_vs_Camus458February 24, 2021 01:01AM

  Re: Good post. Thx, STvC, and hope all is well with you, too!

Rampage2K-278February 23, 2021 06:16PM

  yep, I agree with that....

SunTzu_vs_Camus299February 24, 2021 12:50AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-256February 24, 2021 07:31AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams43309February 24, 2021 07:50AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-538February 24, 2021 09:14AM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams43461February 24, 2021 01:31PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rampage2K-266February 24, 2021 01:58PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

dzrams407February 24, 2021 03:00PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

Rams43387February 24, 2021 03:31PM

  Re: yep, I agree with that....

zn266February 24, 2021 04:17PM

  Know what might be interesting?

Rams43247February 24, 2021 05:14PM

  Re: Know what might be interesting?

zn278February 24, 2021 06:02PM

  Re: Looking at this from another angle ...

AlbaNY_Ram261February 26, 2021 03:44AM

  Re: Sorry, dz, but you got the proverb and its meaning exactly backwards.

dzrams286February 23, 2021 02:42PM

  Lotta good points there, something I disagree with tho...

Saguaro592February 24, 2021 09:39AM

  Re: Fair point....nm

dzrams279February 24, 2021 09:44AM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn684February 22, 2021 12:07PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams339February 22, 2021 12:37PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn397February 22, 2021 12:51PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

dzrams381February 22, 2021 01:06PM

  I did the math myself

zn287February 22, 2021 01:17PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams2531February 22, 2021 01:31PM

  Question

DaJudge322February 22, 2021 02:34PM

  Re: Question

dzrams384February 22, 2021 03:07PM

  Re: Question

zn315February 22, 2021 07:09PM

  Re: Question

dzrams299February 22, 2021 07:31PM

  Re: Question

Leoram315February 23, 2021 02:30AM

  Re: Question

zn279February 23, 2021 04:18AM

  Re: Question

dzrams292February 23, 2021 08:12PM

  Cowboys about to find out if they don't sign Dak

BumRap411February 24, 2021 09:15AM

  Re: Cowboys about to find out if they don't sign Dak

dzrams299February 24, 2021 09:27AM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn296February 22, 2021 02:48PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams281February 22, 2021 03:11PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn301February 22, 2021 03:58PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams333February 22, 2021 06:24PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn478February 22, 2021 06:37PM

  Re: I did the math myself

dzrams279February 22, 2021 07:20PM

  Re: I did the math myself

zn678February 22, 2021 07:23PM

  You're absolutely right.

Ram_Ruler316February 22, 2021 01:23PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

Rams43349February 22, 2021 03:11PM

  Interesting Premise... I Agree

LoboRam294February 23, 2021 06:28PM

  Good posts Rock and Dz

Coy Bacon439February 22, 2021 05:23PM

  Re: Good posts Rock and Dz

zn405February 22, 2021 05:40PM

  Re: Interesting as teams try to plug QB holes

zn324February 22, 2021 06:57PM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams352February 23, 2021 08:05PM

  Wow. That's some amazing research you did.

RockRam306February 24, 2021 01:58AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

AlbaNY_Ram300February 24, 2021 03:21AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

Leoram311February 24, 2021 04:11AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn383February 24, 2021 07:14AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams402February 24, 2021 09:06AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn419February 24, 2021 10:04AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams304February 24, 2021 10:25AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn397February 24, 2021 10:39AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams299February 24, 2021 11:38AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn522February 24, 2021 11:55AM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

dzrams262February 24, 2021 12:12PM

  Re: Crunching more numbers, Doubling down on the theory...

zn366February 24, 2021 12:27PM

  There are several things about McVay that I ‘know’ to be true...

Rams43295February 24, 2021 07:44AM

  Re: There are several things about McVay that I ‘know’ to be true...

zn315February 24, 2021 08:08AM

  A lot of assumptions to make us seem brilliant

BumRap379February 24, 2021 09:01AM