February 24, 2021 12:12PM | Registered: 13 years ago Posts: 7,313
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zn
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dzrams
With QB salaries relative to the total cap rising (15%+ is typical now where 10 years ago it was more in the 10-12% range), I stand by my prediction that eventually teams who don't have Tier 1 QBs will be willing to start over.
Yeah I doubt that happens.
Especially when more teams take the young cast-offs and do better with them than they could with draft picks.
Either way we disagree on a prediction.
If you were just saying I want this to happen, or I prefer this would happen, etc. ... well okay.
But it ignores too much to just look at qb data in isolation and act like coaches and GMs ONLY consider that.
Coaches know that starting over every 4 years does not lead to a lot of final 4 appearances.
And they know if all your eggs are in the qb basket to make it, then, you never go anywhere unless you get Rodgers, Mahomes, or Brady.
Look at all the qbs drafted from 2000 (Brady's year) to 2018 (which, being 3 years ago, is far enough back to judge). It's 236 (not counting undrafted qbs). What percentage of those were Ridgers, Mahomes, or Brady? About 1.3%.
Yet you risk not going anywhere if you start over every 4 years hoping to get a 1.3% qb.
...
You still seem to be missing a huge point: you don't have to get a Rodgers, Mahomes, or Brady if your QB is cheap. That's the significance of the fact that 14/31(45.2%) of Tier 2 and Tier 3 QBs made the final 4 had cheap contracts. That's nearly half! Tier 2/3 QBs CAN win and clearly do so often. They just can't be expensive.
Also, when the QB is cheap, all the eggs are literally not in the QB basket because there is so much more money to spend on other positions.
With careful reading zn you would have noticed that nowhere did I say that GMs/coaches ONLY consider QB data in isolation. But I know for a fact that they consider it and the contractual situations as a huge factor?
How do I know this? Because Snead repeatedly talked about the Rams window to win while Goff was cheap. That's why they were all in 2018.
I'd dispute your claim that coaches know that starting over every 4 years does not lead to a lot of final 4 appearances. I don't know a team that's tried this approach yet. Conventional wisdom holds that it doesn't lead to winning but a contrary innovative approach would have to actually be tested first for them to KNOW it can't work.
But it's fine if we disagree on my prediction. This wouldn't be the first time we disagreed and I turned out to be right! Lol (
of course there are also the times I'm wrong.)
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