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zn

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dzrams

My claim: "eventually teams will stop giving huge 2nd contracts to the Tier 2 and Tier 3 QBs..."

You then brought up 10 years' worth of final 4 QBs. How does that show my numbers don't work?

If you want to see the correlation of all the factors you list, that's fine, do the research on it. But that stuff completely misses my point which was focused on the correlation between winning QBs and money.

Red bit. I doubt that happens. Unless you honestly imagine teams would be willing to start over at qb every 4 years. I mean teams know that it takes more than just a top qb to win, they know there are at best only 3-4 top qbs any give decade, and they know that they can't start over every single 4 year window until they land one of the top 3-4 guys.

If you want to know why and how your numbers don't work, re-read my post. I spell it out. It's simple. Subtract Brady, who is an averages breaking exception to all numbers on this, and teams with elite qbs who make it to the final 4 more than 1-2 times in ten years = 25% of the total. And even then all that 25% tells you is, if you can't sign Brady, sign Rodgers or Mahomes. That's it, that's all it tells you.

But I bet that if we did the final 4 40 games again and asked how many teams that start over at qb every 4 years makes it, it wouldn't be very many (if any).

In terms of missing points, how about this for an example: [ramsrule.com]

Ah, but my claim is not that a team must have a Tier 1 QB.

Even if we were to subtract Brady (which I disagree with since that in itself distorts the analysis), here's what I have on the remaining 31 QBs:

6/31(19.4%) - Tier 1 QBs, Big contracts, multiple final 4 appearances in 10 years (Rodgers 4x, Manning 2x)

2/31(6.5%) - Tier 1 QBs, Big contracts, But No multiple final 4 appearances in 10 years (Brees, Roethlisberger)

6/31(19.4%) - Tier 1 QBs, Small contracts (Wilson 2x, Mahomes 3x (rookie contract from '17-'20), Allen 1x (counting him as Tier 1 but that's arguable.)

3/31(9.7%) - Tier 2 and Tier 3 QB, Big contracts, ANY final 4 appearances (Ryan 2x, Eli 1x)

14/31(45.2%) - Tier 2 and Tier 3 QB, Small contracts


QBs on small contracts get to the final 4 approx. 65% of the time. Thus, my argument is not that every team should try to have a Tier 1 QB.

It's that 1) small contracts give you the best shot to make it to the final 4, 2) if you must have a big contract QB, make sure it's a Tier 1 guy, and 3) there's a very small chance (10%) of making it to the final 4 with a highly paid Tier 2/3 QB.

Even with Brady, the numbers support my claim. Paying Tier 2/3 QBs big money almost guarantees that team doesn't go deep into the playoffs.

With QB salaries relative to the total cap rising (15%+ is typical now where 10 years ago it was more in the 10-12% range), I stand by my prediction that eventually teams who don't have Tier 1 QBs will be willing to start over.