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zn

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dzrams
I'm not looking for guarantees. But a Tier 1 QB does give you the best chance of competing deep into the playoffs on an annual basis.

Secondly, I know Bortles and Keenum for sure were not expensive when they led their teams to the SB so they don't fit the parameters. I'm specifically speaking of not paying that caliber of QB a huge 2nd contract like what happened with Goff/Wentz. Of the top of my head I don't know if Flacco or Ryan were highly paid when they got there multiple times but I see them as exceptions.

EDIT: I have no problem building around a Tier 2 or 3 QB if they're cheap. In such cases, you'd have the entire salary cap to afford great players in other positions. Once the QB becomes just as expensive as Rodgers or Mahomes, he doesn't need to be equally as good but he certainly needs to be in their range - i.e. Tier 1.

There are no guys on that list of all 22 qbs who meet your definition of below tier 1 and only appeared once AND were not on back-up money contracts? Nobody? Okay subtract Bortles and Keenum and put in Newton and Garappolo, who had signed big 2nd contracts before they got this high in the playoffs.

I think all your claims here are tilted by Brady. Subtract him and you have 2 guys with more than 3 appearances. And Brady is an exception compared to all qbs in NFL history, not just the last 10 years.

The alternative to paying your qb is starting over at qb. Now do the numbers on teams that start over at qb.

Plus there's the assumption that every tier 2 or 3 qb is always that. I've looked at Stafford's 5th year numbers before in a completely different context but I remember them. Was Stafford a tier one qb in 2013? 19th in passer rating, 15th in TD percentage, 30th in completion percentage? You have to make a decision on the 2nd contract--keep the qb or move on. Was Stafford 1st tier then?

I'm not entirely sure you're understanding my position. Newton was on his rookie contract when they went deep into the playoffs so he was cheap and the team could afford to build around him.

Garappolo is Exhibit A in what I wouldn't do. He was an expensive 2nd contract which is crippling the team. However, the 49ers are coming to their senses and want to move on. I never would have paid him.

To make my point clearer, I went over every QB below Tier 1 on your list and evaluated their contract situation. There were NO players below Tier 1 that went to the conference championship game or beyond that accounted for 10% or more of the cap besides two exceptions. Matt Ryan and Eli Manning.

See below...

Flacco – Flacco teams went on deep playoff runs from 2011-2012. His cap number was 5.725$ for 4.8% and $8M for 6.6% of the cap in 2011 and 2012 respectively. The Ravens were smart and didn’t pay him a huge 2nd contract like Tier 1 QBs were getting.

Eli – Won the SB in 2011 with a cap number of $14.1M and 11.7% of the total cap.

Smith – Smith’s cap number was $4.9M for 4.1% of the cap when he went to the conference championship in 2011. Basically, he was cheap, and they could afford to build the team around him.

Kaepernick x2 – Kap was extremely cheap both times his team went on deep playoff runs. In 2012, his cap number was $1.16M; in 2013 his cap number was $1.4M. Both years were approx. 1% of the total cap.

Ryan x2 – Ryan was expensive both times he went to the conference championship game. In 2012, he was 11.2% of the cap; in 2016 he was 15% of the cap.

Luck – On his rookie contract when he went to the conference championship game.

Newton – Newton was in the 5th year of his rookie contract when he went to the SB in 2015. His cap number was $8.5M which was only 8.7% of the total cap. Basically, he was cheap, and they could afford to build the team around him.

Palmer – Palmer’s cap number was $7.375M in 2015 when he went to the conference championship. That was only 5% of the cap which is not a typical 2nd contract amount. Basically, he was cheap, and they could afford to build the team around him.

Roethlisberger – Big Ben was on his 2nd contract when they won the Super Bowl in 2010. However, his cap number was only 8.4% of the cap. QB salaries have drastically reason since then where now QBs on 2nd contracts get 15% of the total cap. That’s insane! The second time he made the conference championship was in 2016 when his cap number was approx. $24M for 15.3% of the cap. At that point, he’s probably not worth it which is why that team hasn’t done much since then. FWIW, I have Roethlisberger on the Tier 1 cusp. He's probably a Tier 2 in actuality.

Foles/Wentz – Foles cap number was $1.6M in 2017 when they won the Super Bowl. Went’s cap number was $6M. Total of $7.6M spent on the QB position.

Keenum - Cap number was $1.9M on his deep playoff run in 2017.

Bortles – On his rookie contract when he went to the conference championship game.

Tannehill – Cap number was $2.25M in 2019 when he went to the conference championship game.

Garappolo – On his 2nd contract. 49ers are coming to their senses and want to move on. I never would have paid him.

Allen – Cheap. On his rookie contract.

Conclusion: There are two Tier 2 QBs and no Tier 3 QBs that have gone to the conference championship in the last 10 years that were paid more than 10% of the total cap. Thus, I would not give a huge contract that is 10%+ of the total cap to a Tier 2 or Tier 3 QB. No exceptions!!!!

And your point on Stafford is a good one. It actually supports my point. If the QB hasn't demonstrated they are a Tier 1 QB, don't build around them! Do you see Detroit's results when they didn't heed this approach? They would have been better off not building around Stafford.