you did the wrong math

Quote
dzrams
Here is the raw data without interpretation. All of these guys were the LOT starters in 2020 with the exception of Orlando Brown who is slated to be the starting LOT for KC this year.


David Bakhtiari, LT (G - 4th round (#109) in 2013
Andrew Whitworth, LT (Rams) - 2nd round (#55) in 2006
Terron Armstead, LT (NO) - 3rd round (#75) in 2013
Charles Leno Jr., LT (WAS) - 7th round 2014
Donovan Smith, LT (T - 2nd round (#34) in 2015
Dion Dawkins, LT (BUF) - 3rd round (#63) in 2017.
Orlando Brown Jr., LT, RT (Ravens, now KC) - 3rd round (#83) in 2018
Jordan Mailata, LT (Eagles) - 7th round in 2018
Alejandro Villanueva, LT (PIT) - UDFA in 2010
Jesse Davis, LT (MIA) - UDFA in 2015
Cam Robinson, LT (JAX) - 2nd round (#34) in 2017

That's 10-11 players; about 1/3 of the league.

I continually say that it is hard to find starting LOTs outside the 1st round though you can find them in the 2nd. So I am crossing out all your 2nd rounders--no one ever said the 2nd round does not provide LOTs, it has. It's not as common but it has. I said the problem is after round 2.

Next. You do not get the issue if all you do is list the players from across the span of 9 years. So it's like you're debating someone who said there are no low round draft picks in the league starting at LOT. But no one said that. What actually got said is that the hit percentage is low.

So how many OTs drafted after round 2 since 2013 (which is the oldest guy you have up there) to 2018 (which is the most recent year). That number is 67.

I am not counting Mailata. He isn't a confirmed durable starter yet. And Dino Dawkins was a 2nd rounder not a 3rd rounder. But adding up Bakhtiari, Armstead, Leno, and Brown. (Brown counts because he was assigned to LOT by the Chiegfs.

(Can't do the math with UDFAs because you never know how many were signed every year, which leaves out the crucial point--percentages).

That 's 4 legit examples of 3rd round or lower LOTs that became league starters. Out of 67 tackles drafted in that period. Which is a hit rate of 5.9%.

One thing people keep missing in this discussion is when I say, x or y or z can happen but it's not the kind of thing you can count on. So yeah there are some lower round (after round 2) starters at LOT in the league, but with a 5.97% hit rate, it is not the kind of thing you can count on.

Now since this will come up let's do the 2nd round since 2006. Your 2nd round picks are Whitworth, Smith, Dawkins, and Robinson. Actually looking at 2006 through 2019 (giving us 3 years to see how they did), in that period 6 OTs became at least consistent solid starting LOTs. It's actually more than your 4 guys--there's also multi-year starters like Marcus McNeil and Will Beatty. So that's 6. That period includes 39 OTs drafted in round 2. With our 6 who qualify, that puts the hit rate at 15.4%. Not great but better than the lower rounds.

Just think of someone who argues it's easy to find qbs because Brady was a 6th rounder. We all know what we would think of that argument. Well, saying you can find a solid consistent franchise LOT in the lower rounds is similar to saying don't sweat qb, Brady was a 6th rounder.


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