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zn
The odds of finding a viable, at least better than just average starting LOT low in the 2nd round are not good.
Maybe it's a crazy draft and there really are so many decent LOT prospects, you can find one.
But that's not the kind of thing you count on.
Looking back at a 10 year period ending in 2019 and starting in 2010--how many tackles were picked in round 2 and how many made it as career starting LOTs?
This is of course tricky in some ways because not every college tackle is picked to play LOT in the pros. Most end up at guard or ROT. But still that's part of the point--it's not that they aren't a lot of college OTs you can draft, it's that not very many of them end up as career LOTs. (Actually if you're looking for a guard or ROT, drafting a college tackle in round 2 isn't a bad way to get it done. It's just that not many of them, if any, are going to be good NFL LOTs.)
So in the period from 2010 to 2019, 28 OTs were drafted in round 2. How many became career LOTs? One.
That quick and dirty stat search yielded a hit rate of 3.57%.
If the Rams really do want to draft their future LOT (or depending on AW and Noteboom, their new rookie starting LOT) then their best bet is to use draft picks to trade up in the first round.
You can find good LOTs after the middle of the 1st round. Picks 16-32. Lots of good ones in the league were drafted in that range.
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The bolded part above is key.
It's hard to dispute your point of the rarity of finding a good LOT later than the 1st round in the draft. So that clearly makes trading up an option I'm sure they will consider.
But the other option is making do with a viable LOT starter that's not above-average. As 43 suggested maybe they can go the FA route for a Tier 2 type. Noteboom would likely fit in that category. There are other names for that too.
Point being, I have serious doubts they're going to be able to immediately go from an elite player in Whit to another elite LOT. We should prepare for a player that is a step or two down from what they have now. Just being realistic.
