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BearlyThere
I think the Lions and Goff will surprise a lot of people and opponents.
Here is my breakdown:
Lions ><= Rams
Lions OL > Rams - Their OL has more studs with youth and they got a potential great in Sewell.
QB = - I consider Goff and Stafford a relative push (which 95%+ of everyone will disagree with).
Lions WR < Rams - WRs are a likely downgrade for the lions but there is potential. Brown of USC is a hungrier Robert Woods. Williams has more upside than anyone the Rams have but was injured all last year.
Lions TE > Rams - Hock is better than Higbee but not by a ton.
Lions RB = Rams - Swift is a lot like Akers. A little faster, a little less powerful. Williams who they got from Green Bay is a lot better than what I've seen out of Henderson. Depth key here.
Lions OC ? Rams This is the primary question mark of the season. McVay always has prepared teams though his play calling is questionable. No idea what we will see out of Lynn who did some good things with the Chargers.
Basically from what I've seen/red about the talent levels and players, I don't think the there is that much of a difference in Talent on offense between the two. It will all come down to coaching, health, and execution.
As to the defense. Lions will likely be much better versus last season. Rams will likely be a bit worse. Edge Rams but not 1st (Rams) and 31st (Det) like last season.
First, this is the bottom line for me: there was a disconnect between qb and coach, and when that happens, someone has to go, and it won't be the winning coach. So luckily Stafford was available. I think Stafford will make McVay a better coach.
Anyway, that aside, as for the history. You posted earlier on that you had followed Goff since Cal and what you saw in him this year was a guy whose confidence was up and down. You wondered if McVay would be a reason for that. According to Thirry's article on the Goff/McVay break up, coaches who saw and knew said that McVay was the acting qb coach in 2019 and 2020, and the problem is, he knew how to tear the qb down but did not know how to build his confidence back up. So both your earlier post and the Thirry article point to that. In 2017 and 2018, there was a qb coach (Greg Olson, who is a really good one, and Taylor). The qb coaches were able to act as buffers between coach and qb.
Does that mean that except for that, Goff would have been as good as or better than Stafford? No. Stafford is a 13 year vet and that matters. But it does suggest that in a different environment, Goff can re-establish himself. Whether Detroit can be that environment remains to be seen.
And in the middle of all this, a realistic analysis does not simply get into the kind of hyperbole we have seen directed at Goff. Some guys act like he had a season like Wentz. No. He had 4 bad games (so did Stafford in his 5th year), he struggled at times, and he also came through in games too. They don't beat Tampa without Goff (they couldn't run and they threw 51 times). Goff came off the bench injured on the road in the playoffs against Seattle and played well. Etc. --there are other examples. No one who does those things is as bad as his worst critics say he was.
The question is why he struggled at times too, and whether he can work through it. 2019 is not the same issue--the OL was a mess in 2019, and that is always a factor (I continually ask people to name qbs who play well behind compromised and subpar OLs and I never get valid examples of that. This applies to Stafford too. He will not be one of the rare, rare NFL qbs who can on his own elevate an OL if that OL is below average.) Anyway, the OL was more solid in 2020 (though it had some bad games.) Looks like the issue in 2020 was -- drumroll -- whatever went on between McVay and Goff to cause a disconnect.
And this also gets at why I think Stafford will be good for McVay. McVay won't be losing patience with Stafford--Stafford probably knows more about quarterbacking in the NFL than the coach does, so McVay will listen and not just dictate. That's how I read the situation anyway.
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