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AlbaNY_Ram
Yup. In 2019 Goff had an 86.5 rate - 22nd in the league - and was sacked 22 times.
In 2018 Goff's rating was 101.1 (8th in the league). And was sacked 33 times.
In 2017 it was 100.5 (5th in the league). And was sacked 25 times.
For me, it's pretty easy to think the OL was a big part in the dropoff last year. As you pointed out, we will see.
Yes, the OL has a lot to do with his low passer rating but he still performs poorly under pressure relative to other starting QBs.
See the link above where I researched PFF's advanced metrics on this.
Here are other things I've noted from doing that research:
1) There is no other current starting QB in the league besides Goff and Sam Darnold that have had a 55 QB rating or lower over the last two seasons when under pressure. All other QBs, such as Flacco, who were that low are no longer starters.
2) Marginal starters and career backups typically had QB ratings when under pressure starting in the 60s. The vast majority of starting QBs had numbers at least in the 70s.
3) Besides Goff, Josh Allen and Sam Darnold are the only other two starting QBs in the league that have a sub 60 QB Rating under pressure over the last two seasons. Those types of numbers are not sustainable for starting QBs.
4) No QB has collapsed under pressure - i.e. sub 60 QB ratings under pressure - for 3 consecutive years and kept their starting gig.
And PFF does not factor in the OL. That's a huge weakness and makes bringing them up virtually irrelevant.
By other stats and just watching, the situation was worse in 2019 than 2018 (though 2018 had shaky moments too in the 2nd half of the season when it comes to the OL). Yet Goff was better under pressure in 2019.
So far we have three rankings from different people who examine this. You rely exclusively on PFF which is not really valid IMO (if you check out a stat look at multiple sources--there is not "stat god." 2 other sources which examine this rank him 12th and 13th under pressure in 2019.
Is there any particular reason we should just ignore those other 2 and just accept PFF as the only source? I don't see any good reason to do that.
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Exactly what do you mean by factor in the OL? Do you mean make some type of subjective determination that the OL was really bad or had a lot of newbies and thus bump his numbers up by some factor?
Is there an objective way to factor in the OL? IMO, pressure, by definition, has a large relationship to an OL so when we're solely looking at numbers when under pressure OL is automatically factored in. I think this basic premise is true: QBs that have OLs which are elite at pass blocking face much less pressure in general; OTOH, QBs which have OLs that are severely subpar in pass blocking face more pressure in general. Obviously there are other factors to why a QB is under pressure but quality of the pass blocking is by far the largest.
I haven't seen these other sources that ranked him 12th or 13th. Were they subjective rankings or objective metrics? If I saw them and they looked credible those would be valid data points for me. At that point, I'd probably take PFFs 25th range, put it together with those sources and make a conclusion that falls somewhere in the middle.
Do you have a link for these other 2 sources?
