Good post! Glad to see you around!
I agree with the first part. The standard is set that they must win a Super Bowl. It's not gray for me either.
But I disagree with your predictions and takeaways regarding the OL.
I hope Goff succeeds in Detroit. But they will absolutely need to surround him with an elite OL, find an elite RB, and put some elite receiving weapons around him. And whoever is calling the plays should be one of the better, creative play callers in the league. Basically, give him the conditions he had in LA in 2017/2018. So it's a lot more than an OL he needs.
Exhibit 1 that's it's more than the OL is his performance from 2019 to 2020. There is a legit debate on how good the OL was in 2020 but most agree that it was at least solid and much much better than the 2019 version which was one of the worst in the league. Yet, Goff's performance was largely the same. If the OL was some type of panacea, we should have seen a corresponding and sizeable step up in Goff's performance.
Exhibit 2 is the difference between Stafford's performance under pressure versus Goffs as shown by efficiency metrics. 29th (Goff) versus 8th (Stafford) under pressure is a humongous difference. You rightly bring up a concern about interior pressure but by all measures, Stafford already handles that exponentially better than Goff.
Quote
According to TruMeida and Pro Football Focus charting, over the past three years, when pressured, Goff has produced -0.43 expected points added (EPA) per dropback, which ranks 29th out of 35 quarterbacks (minimum 500 dropbacks). Stafford is eighth with -0.17 EPA per dropback. Stafford’s ability to thrive under pressure and create when necessary will make Sean McVay’s life as a play caller much easier.https://theathletic.com/2361117/2021/02/03/matthew-stafford-jared-goff-comparison-analysis/
In regard to Stafford, the OL could stand to be upgraded especially in the interior but I don't know that a 180 is needed. As noted above, there was huge improvement in 2020. It seems even most detractors admit that the 2020 OL was at least solid. The proponents and every metric that measures indicate that it was a top 10-12 OL. A top 10 running game and being in the top 10 for fewest allowed QB pressures would support that stance.
