Why do you feel like QB Rating under pressure is a small sample size?

If you take all dropbacks by a Qbs the NFL average for under pressure is 28.6%. So, clean dropbacks are almost 3x a larger sample than pressured dropbacks. Pressured dropbacks happen significantly less often and thus are more susceptible to variance. Like if you flip a coin and look at the results--often you will deviations from the expected of almost 5% but with larger samples we will more approximate the expected result in our observed result. Basically, the central limit theorem. Most opportunities for the QB to show us who he is really is.

I am maybe overly wary of sample size but the most often problem with prediction is relying on a sample that is not large enough. We will need to disagree here.I would challenge you to do some math and adjust Passer Rating by +-5 TDs and Ints and see what happens. Over 16 games with drops, tips, penalties,etc I think the variance is like larger than that.


Why do you say that Russ' pressure sample size is so much larger than everyone else's?

Russell has 172 dropbacks Under Pressure. This is tied for 2nd with Jameis and behind Ryan. The difference in a season isnt much, but given his team's inability to block for him over his career he has amassed more dropbacks under pressure than other qbs and his sample size is larger. So, I am more comfortable with his results being who he really is and not just a benefit of some short term variance--tipped balls, drops, broken coverage, etc.

Over the last two years Russ has been under pressure 32% of the time, 2nd most in the league. His team runs alot-which lowers his dropbacks significantly.

In relation to sample size, it's significant to me that Goff is the only QB on that list that has had a 50s rating under pressure over 2 years. Does that strike you as significant too?

Definitely, Goff is not good under pressure. And when he is Under Pressure it is faster than other Qbs. He plays in an offense that attacks the field vertically--he has to wait for guys to get open. Or they do a give up play like the WR screens you see on 3rd and 12. Goff takes too many risks and should have alot more Ints than he does. Think about what is happening with Goff--slow developing down the field plays--he has to watch the coverage and not the line. He is under pressure fast, before the routes come open and forces a ball because he thinks he has a shot at a conversion. Not saying that is relaity but it is what I imagine goes through Goff's head on the play. Next time you look at pressure stats look at ADOT--average depth of target--Qbs like Cousins, Brees, Manning all have Pressure Rating plus 60 and ADOTs under 9. They are making quick throws. Not forcing something once the pressure is already on top of them. Not saying one is better than the other but Goff is a function of his situation.

Was Goff put in a lot of bad (2nd and 3rd and long situations) last year?

Goff has 168 attempts on 2nd and 3rd downs with 7 plus yards to convert in 2019.
In 2018, that number was 195 for 16 games, and 130 over 11 games. Note this is attempts--plays where he threw the ball. Not dropbacks.

Wish i had percentages but I got to do some work to get there. Soon though. But my answer would be some, and significantly less than this year.

Look at my list again. Goff's highest rating with no pressure was last year at 112.0. Notice that all but 4 of the 15 QBs listed have ratings in that range when not under pressure. So is Goff really 'very good' when clean? Is he better than any of those other QBs when not under pressure?

I absolutely agree he is not very good when clean. I have what I think is rare opinion about Goff--at least from what I've read from others. My take is he is inconsistent. With his reads and his accuracy. And given the nature of the offense that makes him look really good or really bad. He doesnt have many easy throws in this offense. The rollouts but still he is on the move on those. I think Goff is good and bad clean and bad under pressure. He development seems fine to me. He is 25 years old and in his 3rd year in an offense. Goff is a stock I would buy a ton of right now. He has all the ability to be great. What he needs to do is be more consistent with his accuracy and decision making. Goff makes some amazing throws that I think only 5 or so Qbs can make. I'd like to see how those other QBs perform in this offense--McVay asks alot of the kid. In contrast, Brady has isolation plays all the time. McDaniels offense is very Qb friendly.

I'll get you average time to pressure before Tuesday. Thanks for the convo. Probably obvious but I love these discussions.