#1. Play Action% 1st and 2nd Downs-Score Differential 14 points or less
2019 Rams 48% YPA 7.9 %Dropbacks Pressured 19.7% (NFL Avg 23.7%)
2018 Rams 48.7% YPA 8.7 23.4%(NFL Avg 23.9%)
2017 Rams 43.4% YPA 11.4 28.1%(NFL Avg 24.8%)
#2. Non-PA, 1st and 2nd Downs-Score Differential 14 points or less
Yards Per Play
2019 4.7 (NFL 4.89)
2018 5.3 (NFL 5.08)
2017 4.7 (NFL 4.51)
Pressure Percentage (same criteria as #2)
2019 26% (NFL 23.2%)
2018 26.5% (NFL 22.8)
2017 28% (NFL 24.5)
#3. 1st and 2nd downs-Score Differential 14 points or less, all plays.
Conversion Percentage--First downs and TDs gained divided by # of offensive plays
2019 25.2% (NFL 25.3%)
2018 30.5% (NFL 26%)
2017 26.5% (NFL 23.4%)
#4. 3rd Down-Score Differential 14 points of less, all plays.
Pressure Percent
2019 39.7% (NFL 36%) Convert% 38.6% (39%)
2018 32.5% (NFL 33.5%) Convert% 44.2% (39.5%)
2017 27.7% (NFL 34%) Convert% 39.1% (42.3%)
So this is alot of info. My thoughts--our play action passing game is gaining less yardage, our non playaction game is gaining less yardage on 1st and 2nd downs.Pressure rates in both situations relatively the same-all better than 2017. Thus, we are making less 1st downs and TDs on first and second downs. Which causes us to see more 3rd downs. On 3rd down we see the Pressure Rate rocket upwards(it sucks to be in 3rd and medium,long in the NFL) and our 3rd down convert rate is the worst of the 3 years. So more 3rd downs, more pressure on those 3rd downs, and converting less of those 3rd downs.
Third down performance is the problem. But you dont solve, imo, the 3rd down problem by doing something different on 3rd down. The key to solving that problem is what you do on 1st and 2nd downs. The best way to convert a 3rd down? Avoid 3rd down entirely by gaining 1st downs or TDs on 1st and 2nd down. The problem with this offense is not QB pressure(that is inevitable on 3rd and 6+). The problem is not gaining enough yardage on 1st and 2nd downs. This, to me, is critical. If you are a coach do you practice more 3rd downs situations, develop more plays for 3rd downs--or do you focus on how your 1st and 2nd down production has fallen off a cliff? This is where you can gain a big competitive edge imo.
Working on a way to see stats like % of plays from 3rd and 7+, 2 and 10+, etc. Think that would be really helpful is pulling the truth out of these numbers.
