Re: Not conjecture b/c my conclusion is supported by evidence....

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zn

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dzrams

Here's why it's not hyperbole. In 2017, Goff did very well with numbers as a top 8-12 QB and he had a top 5 OL.

You only asserted that he HAD a top 5 OL (by some measures), not that he NEEDS one.

It's the difference between this year's initially way out of sync then injured, low ranked OL and 2017's top 5 OL?

That leaves a lot in between.

You assume, to me wrongly, that he can't play with say an average decent effective OL that would be ranked 15th or 16th.

I assume he can.

I assume virtually NO qb plays well behind a bottom rung, broken OL (with a couple of notable exceptions I've named, and they could not keep it up). So singling Goff out in those circumstances to me just doesn't account for what would happen to the (vast) majority of qbs in those circumstances. (And as I already said that situation involves a lot more than pressure. In fact in 2019, Goff has a LOWER sack percentage than he did in 2017 and 2018, and that's with increased pressure. So a lot of things are going on.)

I will even name an example. Kurt in 2004. The Giants OL was a mess that year and it got worse. In his last 4 games before being benched (not counting his brief re-appearance in December) Kurt was sacked 24 times for an unholy sack percentage of 12.3%. In those games, he threw 2 TDs and 3 INTs and had a ton of fumbles.

As for Goff, there are all sorts of rungs in between top 5 and the bottom rung, and I assume Goff would do well with just a decent, solid, relatively healthy OL. You don't but we're both guessing. You, based on one set of assumptions about what Goff is. Me, based on a different set.

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It seems pretty clear that I'm heavily factoring the evidence of how things played out in 2018 and you don't seem to be weighting that much at all. You didn't even mention last year in this post above.

When you refer to bottom rung, you're talking about 2019 but again, as you know, I'm not putting much weight into 2019 because of how ridiculously bad the OL has been. For some reason, your focus has always been on a mere five games in 2019 when responding to me despite me telling you over and over that I've taken those games out of my data set. So to be clear one more time: I'm not really singling Goff out for any of his 2019 performance.

In 2018, I believe we saw an average decent OL that would be ranked 15th or 16th. That's why I posted that PFF had the Rams OL ranked at #13 for the last half of the season. I don't recall exactly what Football Outsiders had as their final rating of the Rams OL but it wasn't one of the worst in the league.

Last year's OL, even after being "exposed", was average. Average OLs have ups and downs. That OL played well against teams that didn't have strong fronts and very badly against teams with very physical fronts.

Given that there is some evidence that last year's OL was average, I'm not guessing about how well Goff would play with an OL in that range. The results are in and they are not good.

Maybe the half of season in 2018 is not enough evidence for you. Maybe you disagree with objective data, metric providers - PFF and FO - that the OL was actually average. Fine. But either way, their metrics are some evidence. And it's that evidence coupled with my eyesight on which I base my opinion.

OTOH, your position that Goff would do well with an average OL is a complete and total guess. You admit it's a guess. What we have is some modicum of evidence versus your complete guess. I'll go with my position for a $1000, Alex! Thank you!