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dzrams
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PHDram
while second contracts for good players are certainly higher on average than their non-second year counterparts, the idea that every second contract for every "starter" just keeps going up and up is nonsense. the data just doesnt support this theory. players ultimately get paid commensurate to their age, production, and skill level. ill concede however that the likely exception to that is the qb position.
I believe it's likely a middle ground between what you and zn are saying.
It seems in general that there is a baseline market at a position for 2nd contracts. A couple of years ago when Cooks signed, $16M seemed to be the general number.
But I also think there are some factors that move the contract up or down a bit. It's not completely rigid.
My theory explains the Boyd and Woods exceptions better. A theory that has too many exceptions is faulty.
And a theory that does not account for reality is faulty. The reality is, the market DOES distinguish between starting caliber. franchise guys and others--and it does so for many different, case by case reasons. The only question is why you muddy things and call some "exceptions."
Remember what is being said. What is being said is, starting caliber, franchise caliber guys get a more or less set amount each year and that goes up. So if someone is NOT one of those starting caliber, franchise caliber guys he is not an exception.
Look at my 2 lists of qbs in my response to PhD.
Okay DZ, you and I agree that the market goes up---for starting caliber, franchise caliber guys.
Though you mistakenly claim I am "rigid" about that. No. See my other response to you above. I always talk about the minor variations, and I always say things like "WRs in 2018 got around 16 M."
In fact do a search for a year of my posts for the word "variation." My bet is it will most frequently turn up in posts where I discuss 2nd contracts.
