Quote
dzrams
I don't doubt that 2nd contracts for starters go up annually. I already know that's true.
I'm questioning whether the market for 2nd contracts is as rigidly set as you've painted it. I think in general it's as you stated but there is a little bit of market flexibility built in. I don't dismiss a Boyd as easily as you do.
IMO there's a reason why a Boyd and Woods are not paid like true starters. In Boyd's case, his performance via measurable stats was not the same as Landry. In Woods' case, he hadn't proven that he was a starter.
It's possible that Thielen got a little less because he played in the slot. But I don't believe that's the reason. I believe the market does make some adjustments for other factors such as age, talent (as opposed to only stats), production, and skillset is one of the factors.
OBJ was widely perceived as possibly the most talented WR in the league. Hill was clearly more productive than Thielen. Also Thielen is a few years older than both of them.
I think in general there is a 2nd contract market that can be considered baseline. For WR around the time Cooks signed it was $16M. If you have a few factors in your favor, you get a little bit more. If you have some things working against you such as limited skillset or a few years older than normal, you end up with the a little bit less.
? I never painted the 2nd contract market as "rigid." To the point where I don't even know what you mean by that. I always say that it goes up annually AND with only a little variation. I say that every time I discuss this. So there is SOME variation but it's not a lot. Example: In 2018 Garapollo got 27.5 M, Cousins got 28 M. That is not rigidly identical which is why no one has or would ever say it was. Another example, receivers in 2018. Cooks got 16.2 M, Watkins got 16 M, Evans got 16.5 M. It's because of (smallish) variations like that, that I say WRs in 2018 got around 16 M.
I ALWAYS account for the little bit of market flexibility you just now said I didn't. We both account for it so in fact we have no differences over that.
I don't really care why someone isn't considered a starter, or a franchise caliber guy...it can be many different reasons. But as I say in my post below about qbs, the market does make that distinction. And I am very careful about noting it. I always say starting caliber or franchise level guys when I discuss annual increases. Look at my 2 lists of qbs in the other post. If we do contracts we have to notice the market makes those distinctions.
Now this is not a misread but just an honest difference and not even an important one. I DO believe the market distinguishes between slot guys and outside WRs, and I DIDN'T when this conversation began. If you follow the trail of 2nd contracts for pure slot guys, it does come in at less (but not SUBSTANTIALLY less) than outside guys. I didn't even think that till this discussion progressed but now I do think it.
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