Quote
dzrams
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Speed_Kills
WRs that play the slot "only" don't get paid as much as WR1. ….
I saw this phrase and thought it sounded true but wasn't sure if it actually factually is.
So here are some receivers that spend most of their time in the slot like Kupp: Listed in order of name and percentage of time in the slot:
Larry Fitzgerald, 91.1%
Golden Tate, 87.7%
Mohamed Sanu, 84.4%
Cooper Kupp, 74.2%
Jarvis Landry, 70.5%
Tyler Boyd, 66.9%
Julian Edelman, 64.9%
Adam Thielen, 57.1% (2018), 31.2% (2019)
Juju Smith-Schuster, 63.4%
The only relevant players on this list that recently signed 2nd contracts are Landry, Boyd, and Thielen. I'm only looking at 2nd contracts so that we're comparing apples with apples. All of the other players on this list are much older and on their 3rd and 4th contracts. The age alone means they are not good comps.
Landry signed in April 2018 for an average of $15.1 per year. That's basically #1 WR money. For a slot receiver.
Boyd signed in July 2019 for an average of $10.75M per year. That's not #1 WR money and he's a starter which calls into question whether 2nd contracts for starters are automatically in a certain range.
Thielen was used mostly in the slot in 2018 and about half the time in 2017. He's obviously used less there this year but given his 2018 usage - which is what his new contract is based on, he still looks like a good comp. He signed in April 2019 for an average of $16.2M per year which is #1 WR money.
So draw your own conclusions. Here are my three:
1) I'm concluding that slot WRs can get #1 money. Exhibit A is Landy. Exhibit B is Thielen.
2) I'm also concluding that 2nd contracts for starters aren't automatically in a set range; that the market does make adjustments depending on the quality of the player. Boyd is simply not on Landry's or Thielen's level and the market adjusted accordingly.
3) Final conclusion: Kupp is showing that he's superior to all three receivers discussed. He will cost at least $16M.
I am not sure what the Tyler Boyd example tells us EXCEPT that there are guys who are not paid like the true starters in a given year. There ARE 2nd fiddle guys like Woods. Sometimes they are wrongly undervalued.
And yes the money for starting caliber players does go up every year. Look at qb. The money goes steadily up. IF a qb does not get market value it means he is not considered a sure franchise qb (which is not the same as "elite." ) That's what happened to guys like Weedon.
And what's missing from your analysis? You don't account for the year. For example Thielen in 2019 got less than Beckham and Hill did in 2018. Contrary to what I was saying before, this suggests that starting slot receivers ARE valued differently, though not by any great amount.
You can't draw conclusions about whether 2nd contracts for starters go up annually (which they absolutely do, they keep up with the cap) unless you do every example by the year the guy was signed. The downgraded guys are generally not considered franchise starters. That's a value judgment so it can turn out to look wrong late on (like with Woods).
The absolute best test case for this is qb. Do qb going back to 2015. And do ONLY 2nd contracts. 3rd contracts and after do not follow the same tendencies as 2nd contracts.
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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/28/2019 07:55AM by zn.
