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PHDram
while second contracts for good players are certainly higher on average than their non-second year counterparts, the idea that every second contract for every "starter" just keeps going up and up is nonsense. the data just doesnt support this theory. players ultimately get paid commensurate to their age, production, and skill level. ill concede however that the likely exception to that is the qb position.
I believe it's likely a middle ground between what you and zn are saying.
It seems in general that there is a baseline market at a position for 2nd contracts. A couple of years ago when Cooks signed, $16M seemed to be the general number.
But I also think there are some factors that move the contract up or down a bit. It's not completely rigid.
My theory explains the Boyd and Woods exceptions better. A theory that has too many exceptions is faulty.