Here are my thoughts...
- Nothing should be predicated on Dominique Easley coming back at full strength. I love Easley but given his career injury issues, that's simply not a smart bet.
- So you propose trading AD for three draft picks. If you consider it from a historical drafting probability perspective you're essentially trade AD for 1.65 starting players. (90% chance (Indy pick) + 25% (3rd) + 50% (2nd)) And that's not saying a good or great starter. Less than half of the
starters drafted in any round turn out to be good/great starting players.
Probability says that the trade would essentially be an elite, HOF caliber player for one mediocre starter and possibly one good starter. Is that worth it? IMO, no.
- Quality trumps quantity. What's better: two decent RB's or Gurley and a JAG? I'll take the elite player every time.
- I disagree the DL would be better across the board. The improvement at NT of going from Walker to Payne is really speculative. The drop off from AD to Easley would be massive. And again, it may not be Easley b/c there's a good chance he won't be healthy. Also, I think they can solve the NT position fairly inexpensively in free agency.
- The decrease in league revenues and the possibility of future cap numbers stagnating or decreasing is a great point. I suspect that's the real hold up for the deal. The agent is probably wanting a deal that reflects the continuation of the recent 9% annual salary cap appreciation. The Rams, seeing the declining viewership, are rightfully hesitant.
Even with their hesitancy, instead of trading AD, I think they would be better off letting him play out his contract and franchising him twice. They can do that at about $40M for all three years. That gives them another two to three years to gauge league revenues and with that clarity both sides may be in a better position to negotiate a fair deal.
