I don't disagree with anything you've said.
I think the crux of the matter is that AD and his people are asking for an opt-out clause.
I don't think it's the money.
Now, if they are asking for an opt-out clause, that's a done deal for the Rams. It's just never going to happen.
The ONLY question at that point is what do the Rams do?
I have a feeling that they franchise him and win with him now (I think if there was a Von Miller in the draft, that might change the thinking a little).
Still, there's a possibility that they do decide to trade him.
Don't get hung up on the picks. Knowing Snead, it would probably be much, much more, but it was meant as a place to begin discussion.
The singular issue is if AD and his people are asking for something like an opt-out clause. If that's the case, AD will never sign long term and it'll be up to the Rams FO to determine the best course of action.
No easy answers.