Wow...it's been a long time since I posted here.
Saw the post got put on Twitter and wanted to clarify a few things.
Btw, hope all are well, had a wonderful Thanksgiving and that your holidays go very well.
Okay, so I'll just enumerate to make this easier. I'm using my pattern recognition to realize what may happen and if so, how to turn lemons into lemonade.
1) I don't want to trade AD. This is a "what if" scenario which I'll get to next. And it may come to that. It's not ME that wants this, but it may be inevitable.
2) I don't think the money is the issue. Heck, AD could take a $30+M cap hit next year and a pretty big one the year after on a very front-loaded contract which players tend to love. So, what's the holdup? Well, my somewhat educated guess is that AD and his agent want a 3-year player opt-out. And I TOTALLY support the Rams in saying that's Chernobyl level toxic. It's just a dead, hard no.
Why? Well, it means for all intents and purposes, the Rams would have to amortize ALL of the guaranteed money in the first 3 years of the contract or they risk having tons of dead money on the cap. Secondly, if AD keeps playing as he has (and why wouldn't he?), then we're always going to be at the most expensive part of the contract. And again, hard no, AD is NOT worth $30+M per year.
3) Unless teams can quantify the streaming numbers and show an increase in viewership, the NEXT TV package will be smaller. The networks won't be able to go to shareholders and justify further increases when viewership is down between 10-15% in only a few years and the NFL has done a really crappy job addressing CTE, player discipline and player's substance abuse issues (the lack of differentiation between pot/alcohol and PEDs like steroids, HGH, and Adderall strike fans and non-fans alike badly). Thus, if the cap begins to shrink, having AD being at the next opt-out wanting the next biggest contract will mean the Rams will still have paid to rent him. If that's the case, then just make him play on the 5th year option and have him play 2-3 years on the tag and it STILL will be less than giving him the 3 year opt out.
And we still like lose him after he opts out because Goff, Gurley and other contracts will rightly need to be addressed.
The rest of the post was more about IF the Rams decide to move on, how could it turn out to be a net positive or net neutral transaction.
I think Da'Ron Payne could be an amazing player. Not AD good, but really dang good. Why would INDY do it? Well, they're D needs a shot and they have tons of cap AND already have Luck on a Franchise contract, so they know they really have the space.
I'll conclude with this: I want AD to retire as a Ram and the GOAT defensive player. Unfortunately, if he and is agents are asking for the 3 year opt-out like I think, that's just not going to happen.
If that's the case, then the question isn't IF AD leaves, but how.
I was only addressing one possible "how".
Again, hope all are well and enjoying this new Rams regime and this new Rams day.
GO RAMS!!!
