I use the same definition that whoever did the studies used to calculate league average hit rates. That way we’re comparing apples to apples. Since I am using Casserly’s research, I use his definition. For him, a starter is a hit. Additionally, every study I’ve ever seen considered a starter a hit. TJM and Hav have started every game since their rookie years. They would both objectively bby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
QuoteRockRam Snead saying he likes the mid rounds gives me no comfort and I'm not sure why it does to you. He certainly has had little success there. Why should he now? You say Snead’s not done well in the mid-rounds. I say he’s done quite well. Let’s explore… 2nd and 3rd round picks (2012-2015): Quick - miss Pead - miss Jenkins - hit Tru Johnson - hit TJ McDonald - hit Bailey -by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Rock, we don't know what other GMs and HCs think. We only know what draft "experts" who are not professionally employed by NFL teams think.by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quotemerlin TE is well known to be a tough position to have first year impact. It's possible of course, sure, and yes this year's group is stellar. But I still doubt any TE we draft will be a year one impact player for us. Engram, for example, who I see mocked to us all the time. He's not going to be plugged right in and excel, dude will need some time to adjust so he'd be a depth guy for atby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
I'm a big fan of Robert Davis. I think he is seriously undervalued. Hoping the Rams draft him in the 6th.by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quotezn Quotedzrams Odds say probably not. Based on historical probabilities, there is about a 40-50% chance that one of those four ever becomes an average starter. I also submit that we have an idea of how they view the situation already. They have had 19 pre-draft visits that I know of. 7 of those have been WRs. That tells me that they are very serious about upgrading that position and probby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
What if there isn't much difference in offensive impact players from 37 to the 50 range?by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Actually if you want to make a strict odds argument, there are numerous studies that suggest that trading down is the strongest strategy. Not only do you possibly increase your odds of finding a starter but you have more picks. More picks means more bites of the apple to possibly get lucky. The Pats have made a habit of routinely trading down. Think of the odds this way: Some studiesby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Odds say probably not. Based on historical probabilities, there is about a 40-50% chance that one of those four ever becomes an average starter. I also submit that we have an idea of how they view the situation already. They have had 19 pre-draft visits that I know of. 7 of those have been WRs. That tells me that they are very serious about upgrading that position and probably don’t see the mby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quotemerlin There are some wildcard positions/players, granted, like the TE position, who the Rams might not want to pass up. But again at TE since that player will slide into a depth role and since it is very, very deep as a position in this draft I doubt they address it early. I don’t know that it is a given that a TE would slide into a depth role. There are many reports from variousby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
So basically you made the 'deepest since '83' up. Ok got it. You're free to make up whatever you want. Personally, I prefer to go with things that have some research or factual basis behind them. Like the 25% rate I cited for the 3rd round was based on various studies I've seen. It wasn't an arbitrary number or personal opinion. I'm presuming that 28-30% hit rate that you cite for the '83by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quotezn Quotedzrams Quotezn Quotedzrams Quoteferragamo79 the Rams offense has been horrible for years adding a 4th round or later pick won't make a difference IMHO be lucky to make the team The odds overwhelmingly state that. But of course fans will hope that a future star is born from the 4th round. Unfortunately, it's rare! I have heard the draft is so deep at certain positions thatby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quotezn Quotedzrams Quoteferragamo79 the Rams offense has been horrible for years adding a 4th round or later pick won't make a difference IMHO be lucky to make the team The odds overwhelmingly state that. But of course fans will hope that a future star is born from the 4th round. Unfortunately, it's rare! I have heard the draft is so deep at certain positions that, yes, people will fby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
I don't trust their talent level either. I know pedigree isn't everything but it is definitely something. There's a reason those guys were drafted in the 4th and 6th rounds or were UDFAs. They likely have limited talent ceilings. An influx of more talent at the position is still necessary IMO.by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quotelaram Quotedzrams Come on! Bringing up Fisher. I know what you're trying to do but do better. lol That's exactly what you did padna, saying that 2013, one year suggests he's not a hack. Never mind Sanchez, Tebow and Gabbert being his top qb's in successive years. If one year proves something what does 3 years prove? I know you have very capable investigative skills, provide someby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
The Fisher Principle involves about 100 years of mediocrity to go with that one good year. So far we've only established that "The Hack" has had one really bad top 10 and one really good year in 2013. Come on! Bringing up Fisher. I know what you're trying to do but do better. lolby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
QuoteRams43 Quotedzrams QuoteGreatRamNTheSky ...Thomas was actually a very good receiver in college with very good hands. I think Thomas was effected by the incompetence that was the Rams offense and offensive coaching last season. Grits Mike Thomas didn't have very good hands in college in terms of drops. PFF tracks this stuff and they had him at a 9% drop rate. He dropped 7 of 78 caby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Yeah I missed the one year part. I stand corrected. Still...it's pretty impressive to be the best in 2013. I'd say that's evidence suggesting he's not a hack.by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quotelaram Do you have any earthly idea? A certain poster has posted his stuff here for years and I've followed it. Just as apoint of reference below was Boylharts top 10 in the 2011 draft. I'd say 5 years is enough time to evaluate them! LOL 1 – Blaine Gabbert (QB Missouri) 2 – Jake Locker (QB Washington) 3 – Cameron Jordan (DL California) 4 – Marcell Dareus (DL Alabama) 5 – Paby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
QuoteGreatRamNTheSky ...Thomas was actually a very good receiver in college with very good hands. I think Thomas was effected by the incompetence that was the Rams offense and offensive coaching last season. Grits Mike Thomas didn't have very good hands in college in terms of drops. PFF tracks this stuff and they had him at a 9% drop rate. He dropped 7 of 78 catchable balls. Contrastby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
He played an ILB 3-4 in college. So the fit is there. Is the question whether he's a good player or not?by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quoteferragamo79 the Rams offense has been horrible for years adding a 4th round or later pick won't make a difference IMHO be lucky to make the team The odds overwhelmingly state that. But of course fans will hope that a future star is born from the 4th round. Unfortunately, it's rare!by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
QuoteFlorida_Ram I think waiting until #69 on WR seems more logical but if they do pull the trigger at 37 they better have a few WR's targeted in the 4th round with deep ball speed ability. The current WR's on this roster now have no deep ball speed with reliable hands and that is one of the most glaring needs that stands out to me going into this draft. I think the need for a WR that caby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quotemax We need a real OC who can stay on the field. Sullivan is a hope and a prayer to stay healthy. I disagree with this characterization of the Sullivan signing. Prior to his surgery which required him to miss the 2015 season, he played at an elite level and didn’t miss games. He hasn't had a career long history with injuries. Last year he didn’t play many snaps but did play well. Andby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
No surprise from me. I was already in the stay away from OL this draft camp. Some late round pick ups like Roullier or Jordan Morgan would be ok but nothing early.by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quotemax If they can find an OC who they can plug in and play at a high level, that would have the biggest impact on this team in terms of this draft. Those are the chances that a newly drafted center could come in immediately and play better than Sullivan. This draft is not strong in OL.by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Quotemax I got a feeling Wade has got his hand dealt to him for the most part especially if TruJ stays. I don't expect him to get many reinforcements in this draft. Personally, I think the best plan is WR at 37, and OC at 69. I would target defense no sooner than round 4. I’m thinking they wait until the late rounds to address center unless Lamp falls to them at 37. All the centers they havby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
Jackson is a guard. I think they actually want GRob at tackle more than Hav.by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
QuoteRams43 I think we need to take players that can be reasonably expected to produce results THIS year. I'm curious, why the emphasis on this year? Are you actually thinking they will be a playoff contender this year?by dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com
QuoteRams43 QuoteSpeed_Kills you are always sky high this time of year IMO Fisher attempted to address the oline and he simply didn't get it done. The choices he made did not pan out...but he didn't just sit idle on the OL... not even close Anyhoo... I am going to wait and see. Tired of setting myself up with this team. I guess what I was trying to say was that Fisher's moves on the OLby dzrams - RamsFootballFans.com