I use the same definition that whoever did the studies used to calculate league average hit rates. That way we’re comparing apples to apples. Since I am using Casserly’s research, I use his definition. For him, a starter is a hit.
Additionally, every study I’ve ever seen considered a starter a hit.
TJM and Hav have started every game since their rookie years. They would both objectively be considered hits universally. Whether they are average or below average starters is a good area to explore but that’s more in depth than most of the studies that have come out. That’s also why I made it a point to address ‘High Quality starter’. I haven’t seen a study on low quality starters…
On Gaines there is definitely some gray area and much room to debate. Even if you take him out, that puts the hit rate for the 4th – 6th rounds right at league average. Given that Alexander is considered an above average player, you still have success at those rounds.
