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zn
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dzrams
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ferragamo79
the Rams offense has been horrible for years
adding a 4th round or later pick won't make a difference IMHO
be lucky to make the team
The odds overwhelmingly state that.
But of course fans will hope that a future star is born from the 4th round. Unfortunately, it's rare!
I have heard the draft is so deep at certain positions that, yes, people will find starters--or more than usual---in the 4th round.
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Yeah, the deep draft should increase the odds for finding a starter in the 4th round.
But I've seen studies suggesting that the 4th round produces average starters - not good ones mind you - at a 15% rate. The 3rd round had a 25% rate. That makes the odds pretty low for the 3rd and 4th rounds.
Even if the draft was so deep that 3rd round talent falls into the 4th you're still looking at only a 25% chance of finding a starter. And I doubt the depth of the draft would bump the odds up the equivalent of a whole round. So the odds probably increase to approximately 20% of finding a starter in the 4th round.
Given that, I'd still say it's very likely that a 4th round pick will not make a difference this year. I wouldn't go so far to say that they would be lucky to make the team.
I just realized when we're talking about making a difference, I'm operating under the assumption that the player would need to start to make a difference. I suspect that's the boards expectations too.
