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RockRam
Snead saying he likes the mid rounds gives me no comfort and I'm not sure why it does to you.
He certainly has had little success there. Why should he now?
You say Snead’s not done well in the mid-rounds. I say he’s done quite well. Let’s explore…
2nd and 3rd round picks (2012-2015): Quick - miss
Pead - miss
Jenkins - hit
Tru Johnson - hit
TJ McDonald - hit
Bailey - miss
Joyner - hit
Mason - miss
Havenstein - hit
Brown – leaning miss
Mannion – miss. Even though this one is a bit unfair. He was drafted to be a backup QB. By definition, that’s gonna almost always be a miss.
2nd and 3rd round totals:5 2nd round picks, 3 hits for a 60% hit rate. 6 3rd round picks, 2 hits for a 33% hit rate.
I’m not sure how much blame should be placed on Snead for the Bailey and Mason misses. At any rate, 33% surpasses the 25-30% hit rate I’ve seen published from various studies.
Based on Casserly’s study, from the 11 2nd and 3rd round picks between 2012-2015, Snead should have hit on 4.3 players - i.e. a 39% hit rate – when you weight for number of picks in each round.
(For the mathematically inclined, that number is obtained as follows: 50% of 5 2nd round picks = 2.5 hits; 30% of 6 3rd round picks = 1.8 players. Total = 2.5+1.8 = 4.3; 4.3 players / 11 picks = 39%.)
Snead hit on 5 players or 45%. Moreover, out of those 5 hits, he’s gotten two or three that are high quality starters, not just average starters.
I’ve seen research stating that a high quality starter hit rate is 50% for the 1st round and 25% for the 2nd round. Presumably even lower for round 3. IOW, in the 1st round, for every average starter considered a “hit”, only half of those are above average starters. In the 2nd round, only one of four “hits” is above average.
Here, out of Snead’s 5 hits, at least two, and arguably three are above average. Going by league average, he should have had only one high quality starter in those 11 picks.
Conclusion: He’s been above average in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
4th – 6th round analysis (2012-2016):There have been 12 picks total between 2012 and 2016. I count 3 hits: Zuerlein, Gaines, and Alexander. Some count Donnal and Wichman because they contribute which is at the very least meeting expectations for late round draftees. Being conservative, I’m not counting them even though they have contributed some.
3 out of 12 hits is a 25% success rate. That’s closer to what you should expect in the 3rd round. Weighting for number of picks in each round, they should have had 2.05 hits (or 17%) out of the 12 total picks to meet league average.
Conclusion: He’s been above average in the 4th through 6th rounds by hitting on one extra player. Moreover, Alexander is a high quality starter which further cements that he's done well at this level of the draft. He should actually have ZERO high quality starters in these rounds.
UDFA’s(2012-2016):Don’t have time to look for the link again, but in Snead’s tenure, the Rams have consistently been at the top of the league in number of UDFAs who have contributed or still on the roster.
Sooooo…what facts do you have to say that he’s not done well?
