Quote
zn
Quote
dzrams
Quote
zn
Quote
dzrams
Quote
ferragamo79
the Rams offense has been horrible for years
adding a 4th round or later pick won't make a difference IMHO
be lucky to make the team
The odds overwhelmingly state that.
But of course fans will hope that a future star is born from the 4th round. Unfortunately, it's rare!
I have heard the draft is so deep at certain positions that, yes, people will find starters--or more than usual---in the 4th round.
.
Yeah, the deep draft should increase the odds for finding a starter in the 4th round.
But I've seen studies suggesting that the 4th round produces average starters - not good ones mind you - at a 15% rate. The 3rd round had a 25% rate. That makes the odds pretty low for the 3rd and 4th rounds.
Even if the draft was so deep that 3rd round talent falls into the 4th you're still looking at only a 25% chance of finding a starter. And I doubt the depth of the draft would bump the odds up the equivalent of a whole round. So the odds probably increase to approximately 20% of finding a starter in the 4th round.
Given that, I'd still say it's very likely that a 4th round pick will not make a difference this year. I wouldn't go so far to say that they would be lucky to make the team.
I just realized when we're talking about making a difference, I'm operating under the assumption that the player would need to start to make a difference. I suspect that's the boards expectations too.
Well the 1st round is 50%, right?
So the normal odds are likely that most picks will just not make it.
We don't qualify our discussions with constant reminders of that. We don't say "I hope they get Donald with their 2nd 1st round pick! (granting that only 50% of 1st round picks make it)."
If the odds of getting a starter in the 4th round went up in 2017---and they did---then, okay. Fine with me. (And btw they went up by more than the difference between 15% and 25%...this is substantially unique and we've not seen anything like this kind of depth since 1983).
You still want us to add the qualifier every time we talk about it?
Or is it just talk and we get it and all conversations like this till we see the player are optimistic.
.
I've seen scouts say that we haven't seen this type of depth in a decade but have heard nothing about 1983. I'd like to know where you got that... Very interesting if true.
I've heard that the depth this year is such that what you typically could expect to find in a round, can be found a round later. Given that, that's why I bumped the percentages up to 25%. That's the typical rate of finding an average starter in the 3rd round.
I'd be happy to entertain an argument for why the odds increased this year by more than the difference between 15% to 25%. But a conclusory statement that something is so is simply not good enough.
But all of this is really beside the point...
Nothing you've said in your post above was responsive to the main point nor has it made my statement untrue: "The odds overwhelmingly state that [you're not gonna find a difference maker in the 4th.]" The deepness of the draft will help improve those odds some but my statement is still true IMO.
You've got to remember the context of this whole sub-discussion. Ferragamo79 was making an argument for why we needed to draft offense before the 4th round. He's looking for a starting difference maker.
4th round picks, even in deep drafts, don't give great odds for that to happen. If you're really looking for an immediate difference maker, it's all about the first two rounds in any draft. That's the general rule.
