Actually if you want to make a strict odds argument, there are numerous studies that suggest that trading down is the strongest strategy.
Not only do you possibly increase your odds of finding a starter but you have more picks. More picks means more bites of the apple to possibly get lucky. The Pats have made a habit of routinely trading down.
Think of the odds this way:
Some studies have said that the 2nd round produces starters at a 50% rate. That’s an average. Clearly pick 33 will have higher odds than 64. So just as a rough illustration to extract the principle I’ll break down the odds of each 2nd round pick as follows:
33-43 – 62.5% hit rate
44-53 – 50% hit rate
54-64 – 37.5% hit rate
3rd round picks are said to have 25% hit rates and 4th round picks 15%.
So looking at the breakdown above, if you trade 37 to 47, you would be decreasing your odds on finding a starter by about 12.5%. But if you’re gaining a 4th round pick that has a 15% chance of success, you’re coming out ahead.
Personally, I advocate trading down into the 50-55 range and picking up a 3rd round pick or both of Denver’s 4th round picks. If you pick up a 3rd, the odds are probably close to even but you get two picks instead of one. And since the draft is a crapshoot, the teams with the most picks have tended to do the best.
