43, my friend, it seems that we have been talking past each other, and looking back thru this thread I'd have to say that the cryptic nature of many of my posts is probably why. So let me try it this way.
Assumption 1: nursing home residents in CA caught COVID-19 thru community spread from the people who worked in those nursing homes (including but not limited to nurses, certified nursing assistants, cooks, clean-up crews, administration, and the people who deliver food and medical supplies).
Assumption 2: if more of the people working in those nursing homes were infected then more of the residents would be infected thru community spread.
Data as of May 30:
NY hospitalizations: 460.6 per 100,000 (89,590 / 19.45M [
www.statista.com] )
CA hospitalizations: 30.4 per 100,000 [
gis.cdc.gov]
NY deaths: 122.6 per 100,000 (23, 848 [
www.statista.com])
CA deaths: 10.5 per 100,000 (4,144 / 39.51M [
coronavirus.jhu.edu])
Based on hospitalization data COVID-19 was 15.2 times worse in NY; base on death data COVID-19 was 11.7 times worse in NY
Assumption 3: people working in nursing homes in NY followed the statistical pattern of the general population, therefore there were 13 times as many infected people working in NY nursing homes as in CA nursing homes
Assumption 4: Based solely on what is contained in this post, NY nursing homes would have more COVID infections than CA and consequently more COVID deaths.
OK - let me know if you have any concerns about the data, and let me know which assumptions(s) you disagree with.
edit: I hope this doesn't have to be said but this isn't a private conversation between 43 and me. And and all replies are welcome.
AlbaNY_Ram
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/30/2020 09:43AM by AlbaNY_Ram.
