This was from August 2020...
TIER 2
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
Rank: 9 Stafford
Tier 1 votes: 5 | Tier 2 votes: 38 | Tier 3 votes: 7 | 2019 Tier: 2
Stafford has played 11 seasons, owns no playoff victories, is coming off a broken back at age 32 and actually ranks two spots higher than he did last year, with a higher average tier vote. Voters liked what they saw from him last season.
“Two at the minimum,” an exec with NFC North ties said. “He was trending to a one this past year before he got hurt. If that joker was healthy, he would have been a one this year. I think he’s doing better and fits better within the scheme (under coordinator Darrell Bevell).”
Stafford set career single-season highs last season for yards per attempt (8.6), EPA per attempt (0.26), passer rating (106.0) and Total QBR (69.6). The Lions still went only 3-4-1 in his starts.
“Why he hasn’t won more, I always try to put my finger on that,” a coach with extensive experience against Stafford said. “We always talk about the culture. Pat Mahomes comes into the league and sits behind Alex Smith, and you have Andy Reid there. If you put Matt Stafford in that situation his rookie year and he gets to see, ‘OK, this is a Hall of Fame head coach, a quarterback that has been around the league that I can learn from and see his habits.’ I don’t know if Matt Stafford has ever been exposed to what it’s supposed to look like.”
This coach and four other voters placed Stafford in the top tier. Seven others showed their exasperation with the quarterback’s failure to drive team success by placing him in the third tier, despite his obvious talent.
“He is the opposite of Watson,” an evaluator who placed Stafford in the third tier said. “Same kind of thing with Derek Carr. Big, strong arm, a couple ‘wow’ passes here and there, but you’re not a consistent winner and your errors sometimes lose the game.”
Multiple coaches and execs from teams that have faced Stafford frequently said they fear facing him regardless.
“If you landed him in Pittsburgh or San Francisco, you’d see a winner,” a defensive coordinator said. “He is going down that Carson Palmer road. Carson never really won until he got late in his career, either. Carson could always throw the ball. He was a first-round pick. He got to Arizona and he made some things happen. Never quite won the big one, but he was still a damn good quarterback.”
TIER 3
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.
Rank: 16 Goff
Tier 2 votes: 13 | Tier 3 votes: 37 | 2019 Tier: 2
The first quarterback selected in the 2016 draft ranks third in this survey behind Wentz and Prescott among players selected in that class. He is also the only one to start a Super Bowl, but with the Rams’ roster losing key contributors, voters do not think Goff is going to make up the difference.
“It’s almost like a system guy and if it’s not right there for him, he can’t make @#$%& out of nothing and that is what the really good ones do,” a secondary coach said.
A defensive coordinator whose team faced the Rams last season called Goff a systemized quarterback who gets shaky in the pocket against the rush. An exec said he thought Goff struggled to see the field. A defensive coach said he saw some Mitch Trubisky in Goff — as in, what exactly does either one do exceptionally well? And then there is the familiar criticism suggesting coach Sean McVay is doing the work for Goff by reading coverages and relaying adjustments through the headset before the snap.
“Goff is a two and he is better than any of these critics want to give him,” an offensive coach said. “Remember when New England was stealing the hand signals, telling Brady the coverage on every play and he was just killing it through his first five or six years? I don’t give a coach that much credit because the guy has the ball in his hands and has to make the plays. Watch the production. The Rams are not a high-percentage pass team. They throw it up the field. They ask a helluva lot of Goff with the types of throws they make. Goff makes a lot of really, really good throws.”
Nearly all voters agreed Goff needed the Rams to revive the running game that was their signature when Todd Gurley was in peak form.
“The team fell apart around him,” an exec said. “He struggled in blowouts. Who wouldn’t? I’m not ready to toss him aside yet. He definitely took a step back, though.
~ max ~
“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton
