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zn
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Andrew Brandt@AndrewBrandt
Biggest myth in NFL team building: you can’t have a top level roster with a QB making upper echelon money. Simply not true, an excuse and a cop-out.
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Steve Wyche@wyche89
Can I get an amen?
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Louis Riddick@LRiddickESPN
Exactly...which is what everyone is looking for. Excuses.
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Andrew Brandt@AndrewBrandt
Re top QB pay: it is not the big salaries that get teams in Cap trouble. It is the renegotiations stacking future Cap to save money in the present. Some teams have QBs making $20M and counting $30M on the Cap. That's bad management.
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Dan Orlovsky@danorlovsky7
The “just have a cheap QB and pay everyone else” thought:
-Since 2012 (Russell draft year) I calculated that there have been 118 teams over that 7 year span to go “cheaper” route-they’ve won 3 SB’s. Same time span-96 have gone “not cheapest” they’ve won 4 SB’s...
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There are charts/visual aids in the original tweets which is why I link them, but here is just the prose sans visuals:
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Moo@Moo12152
Does paying your QB hurt your team? A thread combining EPA team metrics from @nflscrapR, PFF team unit grades and spotrac cap data.
I computed the cap hit of the QB room of a given team in a given season since 2009 and compared it to performance of various units of the team.
Let's start with things the QB can control. Passing offense as measured by EPA/dropback, PFF passing grade, point differential and PFF receiving grade (a good QB helps the performance of his receivers).
We find a positive correlation. Good QBs tend to be paid more. No surprise.
The relation between the correlation coefficients make sense, too.
We would expect that a QB controls his own grade more than the overall performance of his passing offense and more than the point differential of his team.
Seems like we are onto something and our data is legit.
Now things get interesting. What about things the QB can't control? Like defense as measured by PFF grades. Do we see a negative correlation because of the increased costs?
No.
What about measuring defense by the outcome instead of PFF grade? No correlation, the EPA allowed even decreases (which is of course noise).
What about the parts of the offense that are not directly related to the QB? Pass & run blocking, rushing? Nothing there.
Ok, let's take a combination of all things not related to the QB. I just took the sum of PFF team grades for the respective units. Nothing there.
To be fair, that's an arbitrary way to combine the units...
Overall point is: Of course it's better to have $10M than not to have it. But there are so many variables towards roster construction that it doesn't affect the overall result. One solid starter on a rookie contract more or less easily wipes out the (dis)advantage.
Short version: he says no. Paying your qb does not automatically set your team back.
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/20/2019 05:23AM by zn.
