Welcome! Log In Create A New Profile

Advanced

Re: yes. Hit rate may change. See RG3.

May 07, 2018 12:27PM
Quote
max
Quote
PHDram
prior to 2017 he probably would have been considered inconclusive at best as he started 2 games in 3 years. admittedly he looked good in a sample of 5 games in 2017, but he could flop in 2018 much like rg3 was great as a rookie but not so much afterwards. is it premature to call him a hit? or is it ok to have a hit rate that is dynamic (i.e., changes over time)?

Garoppolo is a hit because we are counting just drafting proficiency, not overall GM proficiency. The fact that Belichick sheds Pro Bowl players is another discussion.

Belichick apparently is a firm proponent of lower priced contracts. He dumps a lot of guys before he has to pay them the big buck, regardless of their level of play. Anyone who thinks Belichick let Cooks go because of performance doesn't get it. It was all about the money and how Belichick values the WR position. He only traded for Cooks because he had planned to keep Garoppolo and assumed Brady would be retiring or leaving soon. But Kraft and Brady had other plans. He wanted Cooks to make Garoppolo's transition to starter easier.

Yeah hit rate can change. Generally when someone becomes a starter, there are indicators telling you whether he's struggling and basically on probation, of if he is expected to be--and IS being---at least solid at the position. So for example with Quick, all the indicators showed that he was struggling and had not turned the corner into being considered "starting caliber." With the SF JG, a quality offensive coach wanted him to remain in place which led to a 2nd contract which nearly equaled the one Cousins got. Now if he crashes and burns and does not meet those expectations (which are to be at least solid), you have to revise his assessment and he's no longer a "hit."



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/07/2018 12:28PM by zn.
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  Getting real about draft picks

RockRam1213May 05, 2018 04:17AM

  with good draft teams it's usually better than 1 in 7

zn301May 05, 2018 04:26AM

  Re: with good draft teams it's usually better than 1 in 7

zn258May 05, 2018 06:00AM

  Like Gamo said

Speedball89232May 05, 2018 09:15AM

  Re: Looking at the extra picks...

dzrams218May 05, 2018 10:09AM

  Re: Looking at the extra picks...

zn239May 05, 2018 10:16AM

  Re: Looking at the extra picks...

dzrams183May 05, 2018 10:23AM

  Let's talk about ridiculous

Speedball89208May 05, 2018 10:28AM

  Re: Looking at the extra picks...

Speedball89177May 05, 2018 10:22AM

  You have to take into account when they picked...

jemach224May 05, 2018 04:37PM

  Re: You have to take into account when they picked...

zn351May 05, 2018 04:51PM

  It's not many who were...

jemach161May 06, 2018 05:37AM

  the decade part does not matter...many many teams picked high over the years

zn169May 06, 2018 05:44AM

  Re: I have...

dzrams153May 05, 2018 04:53PM

  Re: I have...

jemach146May 06, 2018 05:42AM

  Re: I have...

zn139May 06, 2018 07:13AM

  Top 10, Bottom 10 comparison....

max148May 06, 2018 07:40AM

  Re: Top 10, Bottom 10 comparison....

zn241May 06, 2018 07:46AM

  From a personal perspective...

jemach147May 06, 2018 08:19AM

  my view

zn116May 06, 2018 08:33AM

  A sad memory of a GM picking in the top 10...

jemach114May 07, 2018 05:47PM

  Re: A sad memory of a GM picking in the top 10...

zn105May 08, 2018 05:59AM

  Re: Top 10, Bottom 10 comparison....

max141May 06, 2018 09:18AM

  Re: Top 10, Bottom 10 comparison....

zn157May 06, 2018 09:56AM

  Well, yeah, but you better stop there...

max140May 06, 2018 10:32AM

  nope keep going

zn135May 06, 2018 11:25AM

  Re: it doesn't matter...

dzrams137May 06, 2018 11:55AM

  Oh but he can!

jemach99May 07, 2018 05:49PM

  Re: Really? Your data suggests otherwise...

dzrams134May 06, 2018 11:50AM

  Re: 2nd round research...

dzrams150May 06, 2018 04:25PM

  Re: 2nd round research...

zn139May 06, 2018 04:45PM

  Re: 2nd round research...

dzrams202May 06, 2018 05:30PM

  Re: 2nd round research...

zn149May 06, 2018 05:36PM

  Re: 2nd round research...

dzrams142May 06, 2018 05:49PM

  Great point...

max159May 06, 2018 07:19AM

  Re: Great point...

zn192May 06, 2018 07:43AM

  Common knowledge.

max189May 06, 2018 09:09AM

  I am not sure what if anything it actually tells us

zn150May 06, 2018 09:50AM

  Please read the Thaler Massey paper

max135May 06, 2018 09:53AM

  Re: Please read the Thaler Massey paper

zn163May 06, 2018 09:58AM

  Re: Please read the Thaler Massey paper

max179May 06, 2018 10:53AM

  Re: Please read the Thaler Massey paper

zn138May 06, 2018 11:29AM

  Re: Please read the Thaler Massey paper

max123May 07, 2018 04:32AM

  Re: Please read the Thaler Massey paper

zn146May 07, 2018 04:44AM

  Re: Please read the Thaler Massey paper

max135May 07, 2018 07:03AM

  so why is garropplo a hit

PHDram305May 07, 2018 07:44AM

  yes. Hit rate may change. See RG3.

max135May 07, 2018 10:59AM

  Re: yes. Hit rate may change. See RG3.

zn107May 07, 2018 12:27PM

  Re: yes. Hit rate may change. See RG3.

max144May 07, 2018 12:38PM

  Re: yes. Hit rate may change. See RG3.

zn107May 07, 2018 03:13PM

  Re: yes. Hit rate may change. See RG3.

max128May 07, 2018 04:09PM

  Re: yes. Hit rate may change. See RG3.

zn135May 07, 2018 04:19PM

  Re: yes. Hit rate may change. See RG3.

PHDram211May 07, 2018 01:30PM

  Average number of games started

PHDram240May 07, 2018 03:55AM

  Yes, and the study was updated recently

max141May 07, 2018 03:58AM

  Do you have a link?

PHDram109May 07, 2018 04:00AM

  Re: Do you have a link?

max128May 07, 2018 04:16AM

  Re: Do you have a link?

PHDram135May 07, 2018 04:29AM

  Re: Good point... So using Max's research...

dzrams147May 06, 2018 12:05PM

  Here's a good benchmark, The Pats...

max200May 06, 2018 02:17PM

  Re: Here's a good benchmark, The Pats...

zn132May 06, 2018 02:35PM

  Well, yeah, by nature I'm a seeker of truth...

max139May 06, 2018 03:12PM

  That Can't Be...

RamBill153May 06, 2018 05:13PM

  thing is what's a starter

ferragamo79171May 05, 2018 08:15AM

  Re: thing is what's a starter

Ramsdude149May 05, 2018 09:27AM

  this is not mysterious

zn150May 05, 2018 10:18AM

  If its obvious

PHDram159May 05, 2018 10:28AM

  Answer me this

zn217May 05, 2018 03:12PM

  what about Mo Alexander or

ferragamo79160May 05, 2018 03:51PM

  Re: what about Mo Alexander or

zn323May 05, 2018 04:09PM

  So were going with the I know it when I see it approach?

PHDram147May 06, 2018 06:10AM

  no (nm)

zn143May 06, 2018 06:59AM

  It sure seems so. NM

PHDram132May 06, 2018 09:22AM

  Alexander was cut in year 3

Speedball89304May 06, 2018 09:36AM

  And this is why

PHDram144May 06, 2018 09:47AM

  Ok

PHDram237May 06, 2018 05:29AM

  a Depth Draft...is how I look at it.

SunTzu_vs_Camus210May 05, 2018 04:30AM

  Re: a Depth Draft...is how I look at it.

zn218May 05, 2018 05:52AM

  agreed....which would be crazy good with the picks we started with #89. imo

SunTzu_vs_Camus158May 06, 2018 01:36AM

  Re: Getting real about draft picks

Rams43284May 05, 2018 06:15AM

  I hope you're right. (nm)

RockRam151May 05, 2018 07:12AM

  Yes, but that's why......

NewMexicoRam173May 05, 2018 07:15AM

  my hope about our 2018 draft picks

LMU93169May 06, 2018 10:25AM

  which means that maybe trading down

Rams_81128May 07, 2018 08:08AM