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zn
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max
The point I was making is that there is a difference success rate at the top of the draft in comparison to the bottom.
Snead is 2 for 2 in the mid first round with Brockers and Donald. Very nice but assuming that the norm is 50% hit rate there, Snead had a 25% chance of hitting both. That’s not that hard to do just throwing a dart. Don’t get me wrong, I love the picks, and I believe he did a great job getting those 2 guys, but let’s not make it sound other worldly. Especially when you consider he is only 50% at the top of the draft, when the norm is over 60%.
Yeah your point was pretty clear.
But you have to add this in. That also means his hit rate lower in the draft is far higher than normal (counting pick 11 down). That's 100%. Is 100% common in those ranges, where you have said the hit rate is lower?
And it includes an all world rare "best defender in the league."
So to me using the high picks to downgrade him is incomplete. It's not the real picture. The balanced view is that along with that, he has hit at a 100% rate after the top 10.
If you keep going just another round more, and look at his record picking 2nd rounders, then what happens to his success rate compared to the norm? Not so pretty.
~ max ~
“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton