nope keep going

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zn

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The point I was making is that there is a difference success rate at the top of the draft in comparison to the bottom.

Snead is 2 for 2 in the mid first round with Brockers and Donald. Very nice but assuming that the norm is 50% hit rate there, Snead had a 25% chance of hitting both. That’s not that hard to do just throwing a dart. Don’t get me wrong, I love the picks, and I believe he did a great job getting those 2 guys, but let’s not make it sound other worldly. Especially when you consider he is only 50% at the top of the draft, when the norm is over 60%.

Yeah your point was pretty clear.

But you have to add this in. That also means his hit rate lower in the draft is far higher than normal (counting pick 11 down). That's 100%. Is 100% common in those ranges, where you have said the hit rate is lower?

And it includes an all world rare "best defender in the league."

So to me using the high picks to downgrade him is incomplete. It's not the real picture. The balanced view is that along with that, he has hit at a 100% rate after the top 10.

If you keep going just another round more, and look at his record picking 2nd rounders, then what happens to his success rate compared to the norm? Not so pretty.

Nope, keep going. 2012 was Snead's first draft. As such I do not take it as indicating a long term pattern. In fact though Everett is an open question at this point, still I don't see in him the kinds of issues that plagued Quick and Pead right away. Then there's Hav and Joyner, with Hav being a decent starter and Joyner something much more than that.

So if you're prepared to say that 2012 was indicative and that that verdict is final and Snead did not improve as a GM with experience, feel free. I think it's the other way around though.

Plus this emphasis on the 2nd round as THE round I don't buy. I think you judge the whole package and account for everything. There's no One Thing That Tells All. With the exception of one valid absolute, there are no valid absolutes like that, the only exception being the absolute that says there are no absolutes like that.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/06/2018 11:26AM by zn.