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If you keep going just another round more, and look at his record picking 2nd rounders, then what happens to his success rate compared to the norm? Not so pretty.
2012
Quick - bad
Jenkins - good
Pead - bad
2013
None
2014
Joyner - good
2015
Havenstein - good
2016
None - Goff trade
2017
Everett - incomplete, too soon to call
I see 3 good picks out of 6. That's a 50% hit rate which is much higher than the 30% of the bottom 3rd of the 1st round that you posted.
Your data suggests that 50% is great.
My guess is that 50% is well above average. But maybe you could do the same research of the 2nd round and let us know if 50% is good, bad, or average.
I just looked at two years - 2012 - 2013 - for 2nd round picks, did a quick calculation and see a hit rate of about 47.5%.
I may look at more years later but so far it seems to me that 50% is not great as I originally suspected but it's not bad either. It appears to be slightly above average.
A lot of work. It's appreciated.
The problem with measuring 2nd rounders is the same sometimes as 1st rounders---often, they're kept around just based on the hope they will live up to expectations.
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True. That can be an issue with any premium draft pick.
I tried to account for that by only counting starters and significant contributors in production as hits. The vast majority drafted in '12 and '13 are still in the league. IOW, they have been kept around but if they aren't starting or providing a significant contribution in production, they got filtered out.
Thanks for the feedback.