Quote
zn
Quote
RockRam
I understand in the off season about all the hype and talk about draft picks; gotta talk about something.
But truly, we need to remember that when you lump all rounds together, about 1 in 7 of these guys will ever become productive starters, and that includes the 50% rate of 1st rounders becoming productive starters. Even the ones that are labeled "can't miss" (or something like that) regularly miss. Afterthoughts can become good to great players and the most hyped picks can become but journeymen players.
If 2 or 3 of the players the Rams drafted this year EVER become solid starters, it will have been a very good draft for the Rams. Who will those 2 or 3 be? Tune in in a couple of years and we'll know. It is highly unlikely that we'll have the good fortunes of last year when 2 third rounders became excellent rookie starters.
You just never know.
I find that good drafting teams have around 40% hits, which includes not just starters but also some significant contributors like Cooper (PR).
Good teams hit on more than 50% in the first round. It's the bad drafting teams that drag the average down.
Not that anyone is ever 100%.
If the Rams are drafting at a genuinely good rate, 11 picks ought to produce (eventually) 4 starters.
Is that so crazy? Well if Everett and Ebukam step up this year, they will have gotten 4 starters from the 2017 draft. That would actually be 50%.
To add to this.
Let's say you discount Tavon as a 1st rounder. They didn't get value from the pick. (Which to me does not mean he is a bust...he was productive enough to be a hit.)
So out of 6 1st round picks that's Brockers, Tree (traded cause of system fit), Donald, and Goff. 4 out of 6 good 1st round picks. 67%. Better than the 50% league norm.