How much is too much for Rams to pay Dotson in FA?

How much is too much for Rams to pay for Kevin Dotson in free agency?
How much should Rams pay for Kevin Dotson in free agency?

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Blaine Grisak



The Los Angeles Rams will have a big decision to make when it comes to offensive lineman Kevin Dotson in free agency. General manager Les Snead must decide whether or not Dotson is worth a big contract or if they can replace Dotson in the draft or get similar production from a free agent player who may cost less.

After trading for Dotson prior to the start of last season, the former Pittsburgh Steelers guard became one of the best offensive linemen in football. From weeks 5-18, Dotson was the seventh-highest graded offensive linemen according to Pro Football Focus. His run-blocking grade was the eighth best and he allowed just 19 pressures. There’s no doubt that Dotson was a big reason for the turnaround on the offensive line. However, the question becomes, how much is Dotson worth on a long-term deal?

At the end of the day, it was Dotson’s first year playing at this level. Had Dotson played at this level during his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers, it’s unlikely that they trade him for a swap of day-three draft picks. That usually would imply using the franchise tag on a player. With that said, the franchise tag would cost the Rams $21.7M for Dotson and it’s highly unlikely that they would pay that amount for a guard.

Pro Football Focus projected a $17.25M average per year contract for Dotson which would make him the third-highest paid right guard in the NFL. PFF’s projection was actually lower than A to Z Sports who projected an $18M average per year. However, it is worth noting that A to Z Sports projected just a $6M ca-hit in year one. Said A to Z Sports,

“Dotson dominated as a run blocker and continued showcasing strong pass blocking prowess. Considering how late he joined his new teammates, it’s remarkable how well he performed...Although his 2023 pass blocking efficiency grade was the lowest of his career, the 97.4% figure is more than serviceable for a player that shined in the run game, and is backed by three seasons (though only one as a starter) of PBE’s above 98%...He won’t reset the market in 2024, but Dotson went from a replacement-level valuation in the preseason to one of the top free agent guards on the market.”

Snead and the Rams have been in this position before a few times over the past 10 years. In 2014, Rodger Saffold agreed to a five-year, $42.5M contract with the Oakland Raiders. Saffold failed his physical and the Rans were able to keep Saffold for a five year contract worth just $31.7M. The Rams then lost Saffold to the Tennessee Titans in 2019 for $44M over four years.

In 2022, the Rams wanted to bring back Austin Corbett. Again, the Rams stuck to their guns and lost Corbett to the Carolina Panthers as he signed a three-year, $26.25M contract. Snead is going to stick by his evaluation of Dotson and likely won’t overpay. It’s something that he’s shown the willingness to do in the past and that likely won’t change this offseason.

During his postseason press conference, Snead said,

“I would bet that he will definitely have a marketplace. People are going to want him to come play football for them and we’re one of those teams. The way we try to do it here, we’ll take it a little bit slower. We’re definitely going to have to be intentional and go through this process. We’ll start engineering a blueprint and more importantly a timeline of communication so that each step of the way they know where we stand.”

It’s very likely that the Rams wait and see how other teams value Dotson as they aren’t going to pay him the $17.25M or $18M average per year evaluation of Pro Football Focus and A to Z Sports. Last offseason, the New Orleans Saints and Cesar Ruiz agreed to a deal with an average per year of $11M. Ruiz is just 24 years old. While Dotson outperformed Ruiz significantly last season, the two were pretty comparable in past year. Dotson gave up 16 pressures in 2022 while Ruiz allowed 14. Dotson’s PFF grades were slightly better, but they are both starting level right guards in the NFL.

Another relatively comparable example would be Nate Davis who signed a contract with an average per year of $10M last offseason. Davis actually had slightly higher overall PFF grades than Dotson before last year.

If the Rams were to pay Dotson upper-echelon right guard money, players like Chris Lindstrom, Zack Martin, and Brandon Scherff have all made Pro Bowls. For as well as Dotson played last season, he wasn’t voted to the Pro Bowl or to an all-pro team. Even if the Rams were to project Dotson as a future Pro Bowl caliber player, paying him that much right now would seem like a huge risk.

Dotson simply is much closer to the Ruiz or Davis range of contract than Lindstrom or Scherff. The two sides could meet in the middle in the $12M-$14M range. With that said, it’s hard to see the Rams going much higher than that. Anything higher than $12M which is more than they were even willing to pay Corbett might be a stretch.

This offseason, the Rams are going to have a number in mind when it comes to Dotson and it’s unlikely that they go above that number. If Dotson is valued in the $17M-$18M range by the NFL, the Rams will gladly allow other teams to hand out that type of contract. It’s simply not something that Snead is going to do.

While it would be nice for Dotson to return to the Rams, there is a world in which he doesn’t play football in Los Angeles next season. That will especially be the case if he does in fact garner top-tier guard money in free agency. Based on what Snead has done in the past, it improbable that they break the bank for a guard. For as well as Dotson played, it’s doubtful that an exception will be made.