The full quote is: "Everyone knows that the draft is a crap shoot". This is true simply by looking at the long term results.
You won't get the football world to acknowledge it, or the pundits that are lucky if they can get it even 50% right on which picks succeed and which don't after 2 or 3 years. But then have no shame on continuing to proclaim their expertise and do it all over again the next year...and the next.
I love Snead's approach of using that valuable 1st rounder as a poker chip you trade. Because by doing that, you transform the pick from a crap shoot to a near guarantee of it bringing a return because trading for a star player means he's a proven commodity and he WILL make an impact. It is the rare day you lose on that one. And, the absolute best guys are part of a pool that only a trade will get them.
As for the rest of the picks? Those middle picks are the meat of the draft. This is where you can make hay. And, the more of them you have, the better because...it is still a crap shoot. It's just math. If I have a 40% hit rate, then if I have 5 picks I'll get two good players, and if I have 10 picks I'll get 4 good players. And if you do what Snead does, which is to ignore the NFL standards for 40 times, height, weight, etc., and pick guys who play REALLY good football and LOVE the game and are QUALITY human beings, these are the guys who fall to the middle rounds. The Rams used all kinds of advanced metrics and good old fashioned film study to make their decisions. And this seems to be where Snead and his draft guys excel.
And who might the Rams be willing to give a 1st round pick for? I still say it's Brian Burns. I could easily see a sign and trade with the Panthers. Naturally, there may be a couple of others on their radar that only the GMs know about. But, if there is, it'll be a Defense player, and nearly certainly either CB or OLB....maybe FS (but I doubt any FS that is THAT good will be available).
