Correlation vs Causation vs Coincidence

James: here's what I understand you are saying in simple language: 1) stressors are know to contribute to suicides and or suicidal ideations. 2) The pandemic has caused stressors. 3) Therefore any purported increase in suicides must be related to the pandemic caused stressors.

1 and 2 are known "facts"-ask any shrink. Putting aside whether or not suicides have increased during the pandemic No. 3 is an" opinion"

Your mixing up differences between correlation, causation, and coincidence.

Correlation: a relation existing between phenomena or things or between mathematical or statistical variables which tend to vary, be associated, or occur together in a way not expected on the basis of chance alone.( there is a correlation between a recession and levels of poverty)

Causation is something that directly can be related to an event. i.e. causing somethin to happen. (I broke a bat over a person's head and he suffered a concussion. )

Coincidence, occurs when two events happen at the same time but aren’t at all related.. (babies drink milk and babies cry).

I suspect you are correlating stressors with suicides. I have no data to support the fact that there has been an increase in suicides during the pandemic but if there has been the very best one can do is say there may be a correlation. What cannot be said is that there is that stressors due to the pandemic has "caused" an increase in suicides.

It can also be said that people have stressors totally unrelated to the pandemic, whether that involves trauma, relatives missing, a child's illness, etc. and at the same time there is an increase in suicides. "Coincidence"

You are correct that the actual "cause" of a suicide is difficult to show as there may be several. factors and even a suicide note may not be complete. So the very best we can do -assuming there has been an increase in suicides during the pandemic-is that there may be a correlation between that and stressors we assume are related to the pandemic. And that's all that we can say.

And of course if there has not been an increase in the suicidal rates during the pandemic there is no issue.


Side note: Years ago I lost a malpractice case against a psychotherapist over the suicide death of a patient. We believed the evidence -based on unprivileged notes taken by the psychotherapist showed he needed to be on medication and should have been referred to a Psychiatrist (MD) for prescriptions. It was a battle between experts and we lost. Afterwards a few jurors exclaimed their reasons to me. 1) we had proven negligence. 2) but we couldn't prove the negligence "caused" the suicide. Their thinking tracked yours.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 11/12/2020 03:01PM by waterfield.