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Correlation vs Causation vs Coincidence

November 12, 2020 02:42PM
James: here's what I understand you are saying in simple language: 1) stressors are know to contribute to suicides and or suicidal ideations. 2) The pandemic has caused stressors. 3) Therefore any purported increase in suicides must be related to the pandemic caused stressors.

1 and 2 are known "facts"-ask any shrink. Putting aside whether or not suicides have increased during the pandemic No. 3 is an" opinion"

Your mixing up differences between correlation, causation, and coincidence.

Correlation: a relation existing between phenomena or things or between mathematical or statistical variables which tend to vary, be associated, or occur together in a way not expected on the basis of chance alone.( there is a correlation between a recession and levels of poverty)

Causation is something that directly can be related to an event. i.e. causing somethin to happen. (I broke a bat over a person's head and he suffered a concussion. )

Coincidence, occurs when two events happen at the same time but aren’t at all related.. (babies drink milk and babies cry).

I suspect you are correlating stressors with suicides. I have no data to support the fact that there has been an increase in suicides during the pandemic but if there has been the very best one can do is say there may be a correlation. What cannot be said is that there is that stressors due to the pandemic has "caused" an increase in suicides.

It can also be said that people have stressors totally unrelated to the pandemic, whether that involves trauma, relatives missing, a child's illness, etc. and at the same time there is an increase in suicides. "Coincidence"

You are correct that the actual "cause" of a suicide is difficult to show as there may be several. factors and even a suicide note may not be complete. So the very best we can do -assuming there has been an increase in suicides during the pandemic-is that there may be a correlation between that and stressors we assume are related to the pandemic. And that's all that we can say.

And of course if there has not been an increase in the suicidal rates during the pandemic there is no issue.


Side note: Years ago I lost a malpractice case against a psychotherapist over the suicide death of a patient. We believed the evidence -based on unprivileged notes taken by the psychotherapist showed he needed to be on medication and should have been referred to a Psychiatrist (MD) for prescriptions. It was a battle between experts and we lost. Afterwards a few jurors exclaimed their reasons to me. 1) we had proven negligence. 2) but we couldn't prove the negligence "caused" the suicide. Their thinking tracked yours.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 11/12/2020 03:01PM by waterfield.
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  (new thread) COVID-19 Hospitalizations Are Surging.

zn161November 10, 2020 04:25PM

  Ain't no surprise here is it ?

waterfield20November 10, 2020 04:56PM

  agreed (nm)

zn8November 10, 2020 06:39PM

  It's going to just have to take it's course

NewMexicoRam23November 11, 2020 10:35AM

  Re: It's going to just have to take it's course

waterfield19November 11, 2020 11:06AM

  I don't think that's what he meant at all....

JamesJM19November 11, 2020 11:09AM

  Re: I don't think that's what he meant at all....

waterfield18November 11, 2020 11:24AM

  The suicides aren't the virus

NewMexicoRam19November 11, 2020 12:33PM

  Re: The suicides aren't the virus

waterfield18November 11, 2020 02:46PM

  there is no evidence of some "suicide" binge

zn21November 11, 2020 04:59PM

  no it's not, zn....

JamesJM25November 11, 2020 05:15PM

  there are studies demonstrating no rise in suicides

zn21November 11, 2020 08:06PM

  Yes, right, zn

NewMexicoRam18November 11, 2020 06:28PM

  Re: Yes, right, zn

zn12November 11, 2020 08:11PM

  I'm speaking about COVID cases and deaths

NewMexicoRam11November 12, 2020 08:14AM

  Re: Yes, right, zn

waterfield16November 11, 2020 08:14PM

  I ask the other side

NewMexicoRam15November 12, 2020 03:00AM

  Re: I ask the other side

waterfield14November 12, 2020 08:20AM

  Many suicides come from economic concerns

NewMexicoRam13November 12, 2020 08:55AM

  This is almost impossible to discuss...

JamesJM14November 12, 2020 09:02AM

  Re: This is almost impossible to discuss...

zn22November 12, 2020 09:55AM

  Re: This is almost impossible to discuss...

JamesJM15November 12, 2020 11:27AM

  Re: This is almost impossible to discuss...

zn17November 12, 2020 11:54AM

  It ain't me...

JamesJM14November 12, 2020 12:06PM

  Re: It ain't me...

ramBRO14November 12, 2020 12:21PM

  Re: It ain't me...

JamesJM10November 12, 2020 12:25PM

  Re: It ain't me...

ramBRO15November 12, 2020 02:36PM

  Re: It ain't me...

zn16November 13, 2020 04:55AM

  An interesting point here is...

JamesJM13November 12, 2020 12:39PM

  Re: An interesting point here is...

zn10November 12, 2020 12:59PM

  Correlation vs Causation vs Coincidence

waterfield19November 12, 2020 02:42PM

  Good reply...

JamesJM9November 12, 2020 02:57PM

  sigh

zn14November 12, 2020 01:08PM

  No, that's double speak....

JamesJM13November 12, 2020 01:10PM

  Re: No, that's double speak....

zn11November 12, 2020 01:26PM

  You're doing it every post you make...

JamesJM10November 12, 2020 01:27PM

  Re: You're doing it every post you make...

zn15November 12, 2020 01:33PM

  You're deluded. (nm)

JamesJM6November 12, 2020 01:34PM

  more of the same

zn10November 12, 2020 01:41PM

  I could say the same...

JamesJM10November 12, 2020 01:42PM

  Re: I could say the same...

zn12November 12, 2020 01:48PM

  What?!?!?!? No one is arguing for lockdowns?!?!?!

NewMexicoRam14November 12, 2020 01:40PM

  gee I posted that 4 or 5 times and you just now caught it

zn17November 12, 2020 01:52PM

  Wow, zn

NewMexicoRam16November 12, 2020 03:14PM

  Re: Wow, zn

zn17November 12, 2020 07:59PM

  Re: Yes, right, zn

zn11November 12, 2020 03:31AM

  Let me give you another statistic

NewMexicoRam16November 12, 2020 04:30AM

  Re: Let me give you another statistic

zn10November 12, 2020 09:47AM

  C'mon, zn

NewMexicoRam10November 12, 2020 11:05AM

  Re: C'mon, zn

zn10November 12, 2020 11:10AM

  Zn, your last statement isn't even medically scientific

NewMexicoRam14November 12, 2020 01:03PM

  hunh?

zn8November 12, 2020 01:40PM

  Read more of JAMA

NewMexicoRam11November 12, 2020 01:42PM

  not some articles you agree with out of tons, consensus

zn10November 12, 2020 01:51PM

  So you have read ALL the JAMA articles on covid

PHDram11November 12, 2020 06:58PM

  what is the international scientific consensus

zn10November 12, 2020 07:57PM

  Working for the Fire Dept, I know there is collateral damage.

Ramgator14November 12, 2020 05:48AM

  I'm with you

NewMexicoRam10November 12, 2020 06:24AM

  I DO understand that it IS a concern.

Ramgator10November 12, 2020 06:59AM

  Of course.

NewMexicoRam12November 12, 2020 08:08AM

  and what you have there

zn14November 12, 2020 10:03AM

  Sorry but the media has done a CRAPPY job of toning down the hysteria.

Ramgator9November 12, 2020 10:39AM

  who is talking about "the media"

zn12November 12, 2020 11:17AM

  Re: who is talking about "the media"

ramBRO15November 12, 2020 11:59AM

  Negative!

Ramgator10November 12, 2020 01:58PM

  wait sorry

zn11November 12, 2020 02:16PM

  My reply was not about YOU!

Ramgator10November 12, 2020 02:04PM

  Re: My reply was not about YOU!

zn8November 12, 2020 02:21PM

  It has been up and down all year.

Ramgator5November 12, 2020 02:59PM

  Re: It has been up and down all year.

zn7November 12, 2020 03:02PM

  Problem with Florida is it is LOADED with people! Orlando...

Ramgator10November 12, 2020 03:08PM

  And ZN and Rambro....

Ramgator11November 12, 2020 03:13PM

  Re: And ZN and Rambro....

ramBRO13November 12, 2020 05:15PM

  Re: And ZN and Rambro....

zn10November 13, 2020 04:59AM

  that doesn;t matter

zn13November 12, 2020 08:10PM

  Re: that doesn;t matter

zn18November 12, 2020 08:22PM

  Masks, shutdowns, isolation... oh my...

Atlantic Ram19November 11, 2020 04:20PM

  Re: Masks, shutdowns, isolation... oh my...

zn17November 11, 2020 04:55PM

  No, it wouldn't

NewMexicoRam17November 11, 2020 06:25PM

  Good news on the subject

waterfield20November 11, 2020 03:03PM

  Re: Good news on the subject

zn18November 11, 2020 05:00PM

  pro/con lockdown talk in the news

zn18November 13, 2020 05:54AM

  ""no appetite" "

waterfield19November 13, 2020 07:04AM

  hard to say

zn14November 13, 2020 08:12AM

  I'm sure we all have differing opinions on that..

sstrams11November 13, 2020 09:52AM

  Re: I'm sure we all have differing opinions on that..

waterfield14November 13, 2020 10:53AM

  a sports writer on getting the virus

zn12November 13, 2020 04:37PM

  health workers getting dangerously overworked in the new virus surge

zn17November 13, 2020 06:41PM

  Re: (new thread) COVID-19 Hospitalizations Are Surging.

canadaram22November 20, 2020 12:01PM

  what I heard about Canada

zn11November 20, 2020 12:11PM

  Re: what I heard about Canada

canadaram9November 20, 2020 01:51PM