Unless you're the business owner, someone else is paying the bill.
So for an employee and employer the compensation game is all about balancing market, position, production (current vs. expected) and value to the organization. These are all subjective elements to varying degrees. Add to that a hard cap that doesn't permit the employer to decide to go over it in order to obtain or retain a very desired employee.
So the question about Watkins is going to be viewed differently by differing sets of eyes. No amount of stats is going to be the deciding factor. We're not far from finding out exactly where the Rams find the balance for Watkins lies in terms of overall compensation, and whether Watkins is in agreement.
With no more knowledge about this than any other fan, I'd guess that it is only 40% that Watkins stays. I don't believe they'll Franchise him. If they use the Tag at all, it will likely be on Joyner (if needed) because the Safety tag is much more affordable than the WR tag.
