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zn
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h2omelonhead
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zn
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BearlyThere
So based on these two sources, is there a definitive conclusion?
1. Stafford > Goff on 3rd and 8+
2. Goff is no good on 3rd and 8+ (or at least wasn't in 2020)
3. McVay doesn't trust Goff on 3rd and 8+
4. McVay can't play call on 3rd and 8+
Some or all of these?
Zn's numbers appear to make the answer #1 but definitely not #2.
But also, notice--Goff threw 48 times on 3rd and 8+, Stafford threw 62 times. 48 times is more than Jackson, Allen, Brees, Watson, Wilson, though Brees was hurt. It is also 4 less than Mahomes. It's just not a bad or indictable number comparatively.
Detroit has no running game. So you tend to want to let Stafford gunsling.
At least the Rams have Cam Akers. That could be some factor in the discrepancy.
With that option, McVay didn't need to rely on Goff as much.. which probably helps facilitate the "lost confidence" feeling.
Would be interesting to see who on the Rams took most of the carries on 3rd and 8+
How many times were they in third down v. Detroit?
And as I said...Goff does not have low numbers when it comes to 3rd and long attempts. He's only 4 attempts away from Mahomes.
Once you look at rankings, that changes how you see numbers, because rankings are comparative. Was Stafford more effective on 3rd and 8+ than Goff? Sure. BUT. Stafford was also better than EVERYONE on 3rd and 8+--and, cool, hope that continues--and meanwhile Goff was 8th.
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The 2020 Goff is different from 2019 Goff from the OP's post.
The 2020 numbers have him at a 78.7 Passer Rating with 7.3 YPA.. less than the min 8 yards he needed for a first down. All this with an increase in time in the pocket from 2019.
If you are looking at 2019 Goff numbers.. then yes his numbers look good. But 2020 numbers look like more of a dropoff.
I wonder if these running attempts came in more in the 1st half or second half of the season or if it was more easily distributed.
This may give some indication of McVay's sentiment. You would assume that he would have more confidence in Goff earlier in the season so the running attempts would be less in the first half. If there is no relationship, then the runs would probably look more random.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/25/2021 07:21PM by h2omelonhead.