Passing on 3rd and 8 or more--Rams performance: Research

Quote
rampage666
I looked at the last three seasons--2020, 2019, 2018. 3rd down and 8 or more yards to gain. No 2 min plays.

With Qbs with at least 25 dropbacks in this situation--total QB seasons was 104, so 3 years at 32 QB starters = 96, I think 25 is a fair threshold.

Goff in 2019

Comp % 60%
YPA 9.7
Depth 10.7
of Target
TD/INT 2/1
Sacks 6
Avg Time 2.68
to Throw
Passer 96.4
Rating

Goff of 2019 threw for 631 yards in this situation(2nd most by season in the last 3 years)--the most yards thrown in those situations 634 by a Mr. Matthew Stafford of 2020.

Stafford 2020

Comp % 64.3%
YPA 11.3
Depth 12.6
of Target
TD/INT 1/2
Sacks 9
Avg Time 2.89
to Throw
Passer 93.9
Rating


Pretty similar stats.

Goff 2020
Goff in 2019

Comp % 57.8% 60%
YPA 7.3 9.7
Depth 10.4 10.7
of Target
TD/INT 1/1 2/1
Sacks 4 6
Avg Time 2.84 2.68
to Throw
Passer 78.7 96.4
Rating
Yards 327 631

Big difference.

Now some Rams team offense stats: same situation--3rd down and 8 or more to gain. No 2 min plays.

Pass Play %
2020 Rams 74.7% 32nd NFL Avg 90.1%; Detroit 2020 was 96%
2019 Rams 83.9% 28th NFL Avg 90.8% Detroit 2019 was 98.7%
2018 Rams 89.1% 18th NFL Avg 90.2% Detroit 2018 was 84.7%
2017 Rams 83.5% 31st NFL Avg 90.7% Detroit 2017 was 89.8%

2016 WFT 98.3% 1st NFL Avg 90.9%
2015 WFT 89.5% 19th NFL Avg 90.8%

The Rams pass play % dropped 14.4 %,, or passed on 3 and 8 or more 1/7 less, from the peak in 2018 to 2020. This was a 6% decline in 2019 and a further 9.2% less in 2020. These samples are small, but I think there is enough here to say McVay did not like passing on 3rd and 8 or more. WR screens are included in these stats.

Removing screens from this situation we see:
Pass Play% No screens All passes
2020 Rams 71.2% Last (74.7% Last)
2019 Rams 81.6% 29th (83.9% 28th)
2018 Rams 86% 24th (89.1% 18th)
2017 Rams 79.5% 31st (83.5% 31st)

Not a big difference, and the samples are really small so I would ignore screen numbers. So we ran more on 3 and 8 or more--how did we do?

Run Play%
2020 Rams 28.8% Most NFL AVG 11.15

For the below--3rd down and 8 or more, removed screen plays, no 2 min plays, and a score differential where I removed plays if we had a 14 point or more lead--

We ran the ball 20 times with any score differential. These plays do not include QB scrambles--just designed run plays. 8 of these runs were when we had a 14 point or more lead. So remove those and we have 12 runs. We are now 2nd in the NFL in Run Play % on 3rd and 8 or long. Seattle is first at 22% and we are at 20.7%. NFL Avg is 8.24%.

Per attempt we made 7.1 yards. This was 10th. NFL Avg was 5.84. For reference, Seattle made 4.3 yards.

We made 2 first downs in 12 runs. That is a conversion percentage of 16.7%. Throwing the ball we converted on 34.8% (16/46). This ranked 4th in the league. FOURTH. That comes out to being 2 first downs extra we would have converted if we passed instead of running.

I think this decline in passing can be attributed to Goff, and the decline has been year over year. Interesting to see how much McVay threw in those situations with Cousins. I wonder if we are underestimating the amount of change in the offense Stafford's arrival will cause.

Thought this was interesting, hope you are enjoyed it.