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zn
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Rams43
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RockRam
They have RB's 1 and 2 decided. No need to draft early or even mid for a RB. You can't find serviceable to good RBs all over the draft. Besides, they'll be some out of work vets that'll work for close to minimum by the end of training camp.
Two things.
1. Are you familiar with the dismal League wide success rate of drafted RB’s in 4th round and below? ZN provided some eye opening stats on that. I highly recommend you find his post and read it. I virtually guarantee that it will make you rethink your position.
2. RB’s 1 and 2 are hardly decided. Hendo, at best, needs to win most of us over. Brown inspires zero confidence if he’s forced into a starting role. Lastly, Snead himself has virtually said that at least one RB is gonna be added this offseason.
In fairness, I thought Zn's numbers were measuring where "good" RBs are found in the draft. Rock said you could find RBs that were "serviceable to good". If they're looking for someone "serviceable" that will be a clear #2 to Henderson in a RB committee, then maybe the later rounds will suffice.
I think it comes down to, what type of quality are they looking for. If they want someone that is Henderson's equal or better, then yeah, it's going to have to be before the 5th. But we don't know that's what they're looking for.
I just measured hits, which I defined as active, productive backs. That's largely because that's what I think they want and also as it happens what I would like. I think they have to plan for a committee at RB type system. If nothing else there is no guy capable of carrying the load behind DH, so even if they make him the major focus at back, there's no one behind him if he misses games.
I don't know what the numbers would be on serviceable guys like Malcolm Brown.
I just know that if you want to rotate 2 starters, or have a starting caliber back behind your starter, the pickins after round 3 are slim.
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Right I get that. And I see why they need someone behind DH so no argument there.
The reason I broke it down into serviceable versus good is because there are some guys that weren't considered hits in your post that may satisfy the requirements of what the Rams are looking for. IIRC, Kenyon Drake comes to mind and another RB that you said was borderline.
I'm putting that quality of RB into the serviceable category. Putting it more succinctly, I'm not sure they want to rotate 2 starting caliber backs. Maybe DH and something a little less will be ok.
Well I am looking for 2 starters including DH, so one new guy. For lots of reasons already listed. It's possible btw that this year, there's enough running back depth to get that in the 4th round. Usually you don't want to let it go past the 3rd round.
I am not even sure that lower picks have good odds for finding a
serviceable back. I will count that as a guy who has at least 500 yards in a recent season. Looking again at rounds 4-7 from 2015 to 2017--far enough back to judge--this is the percentage on guys who are at least serviceable.
There's Howard, Carson, Jones, maybe Ajayi, Mack, Williams (just short but we'll count him), Collins (Baltimore). So that's 7 of 55. That's still long odds (12.7%).
I include a link to the list in case someone wants to see if there's anyone else. [
www.pro-football-reference.com]
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/20/2020 04:31AM by zn.
