Merlin

Quote

MERLIN: the second question is "What is a fair contract for a top young QB who might be willing to not push the big paycheck envelope?" I mean the difference between $35M per year (Russell Wilson) and $20M per year (Tom Brady) is profound. Is it fair to even ask Jared's representation if they're willing to do that? To me this whole thing is a fascinating discussion so curious what you guys think.

The qb contracts thing can be a murky issue but there are some rough guidelines on how to follow them. I say these things a lot but they bear some repeating.

Russell Wilson's recent contract and Brady's contract will have nothing to do, at all, with what Goff will get. That;s for a few reasons. It will also have nothing to do with "fair," that's just not an issue. 2nd contracts for starting qbs follow their own logic.

First, since Goff is up for a 2nd contract and starting qb 2nd contracts have no connection to the 3rd and 4th etc. contract markets, we can just forget about qbs in general...that's not how it works. 2nd contracts go up with the cap every year and they are their own market. The market for 2nd contracts is its own thing. It will have nothing to do with Wilson's or Brady's money. In 2017, Carr got 25 M. In 2018, Garappollo and Cousins got around 27.5-28 M. The figure out there for Prescott is 30 M. By 2020 that ought to be around 32-33 M.

As it happens, I was just listening to a podcast by Benjamin Allbright and he was asked about Dak's contract and Allbright explicitly said, he ought to get around 30 M which is the the number for starting qb 2nd contracts this year. A guy as informed as Allbright knows---2nd contracts are their own thing. Him saying that is just an example of how these things work.

Second, 3rd and 4th contracts can be much more widely variable. They are not as set. So someone like Brady can sign for a hometown discount, and Wilson goes for max money. They are just not as set as 2nd contracts are. They can vary much more.

Third, no one that I have ever seen under the new CBA gives a hometown discount on a 2nd contract. Nobody. It's the contract where players cash in after their rookie contracts. They're saying, now you pay for my prime years. Brady for example did not take discounts until he was into his 4th contract. In 2010, he signed a deal that made him the highest paid player in the league at the time. So even Brady, who is famous for his RECENT hometown discounts, cashed in when it was time to cash in. That's why the words "fair value" never come into it. You think your qb is starting caliber and want to keep him, you pay the market that year for 2nd contracts. That's just how it works.

Fourth, sometimes people discuss starting qb 2nd contracts as if the players were being ranked. So, Dak is worth less than Goff, and how did Cousins deserve that, and so on. But that's also NOT how 2nd contracts for starting qbs work. The numbers have a LITTLE leeway but not that much. They just go up on a regular schedule year by year. A qb is either seen as a starting caliber guy or not, and if he is, he gets the numbers for a starting qb's 2nd contract. If he's not, then, he does not get those numbers....and if he doesn't, it shows a lack of faith in the qb and it's a sign that he's not viewed as a franchise caliber qb.

Here are the QBs who signed TOP 2nd contracts since 2012. They all got the going market for the year they signed:

* Newton, Luck, Wilson, Cousins, Carr, Dalton, Garoppolo

Limiting it just to the first round (so there are not a few dozen names to sort out), here are the qbs drafted in the 1st round from 2012 on who DID NOT get market value 2nd contracts. They either signed low-end contracts (low for that year's market, which indicates there were doubts about them), or got injured, or just did not pan out:

* Tannenhill, Bortles, Griffen, Bridgewater, Ponder, Gabbert, Locker, Weedon, Manual, Manziel.

When it comes to 2nd contracts, here's how it goes. You look at Goff and ask if he belongs on the first list or the 2nd list. If he goes on the first list (which he should) then he gets what 2nd contracts are for qbs the year he comes up. Wilson and Brady will have nothing to do with it. It's not "what do qbs get" it's "what do starting caliber qbs get on 2nd contracts."

There's also the idea that teams that pay their qbs make themselves less competitive. I personally don't buy that. There's ample evidence that teams can win with qbs that get their paydays. The postseason every year is full of teams that meet that description--ie. teams with big contract qbs. I tend not to worry about that. If a team has the coaching and can manage the cap and is good at acquiring players, it can stay in there with a qb who has cashed in.

Anyway that's my 22 cents.


...



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 06/02/2019 03:11PM by zn.