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max
Not that I agree with Florio, but he puts forth a debatable theoretical argument.
Do you pay every starter QB a big percentage of your cap if you believe you can replace him with someone as good or better at a fraction of the cost?
Goff aside, there
I know you said Goff aside but for purposes of clarity I will say at the beginning that I think Goff deserves a 2nd contract and will get one from the Rams.
But generally speaking I do believe there is soon coming a point where teams will start to change strategies on QBs where not every starting QB will automatically get extended.
In recent years there have been two significant developments. First, the rate at which QBs salaries are increasing is far outpacing the rate at which the salary cap is expanding. Over time, this is unsustainable. This factor by itself, if it continues, will eventually force something to change.
The second development is something I've mentioned over the last year and that is, good QBs no longer seem to be as rare as they once were. To be clear, the importance of the position has not gone down and will not for the foreseeable future. But the league is now full of good, young QBs.
Look at the list since 2016: Goff, Wentz, Dak, Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold. Every one of these guys is either good already or has shown strong potential to be a franchise QB.
That's 9 franchise QBs in three years or three per year. There's also Josh Allen and Josh Rosen who are starting QBs with whom we have yet to see how they turn out. In total, that's 11 starting QBs in the last 3 drafts. I'm sorry but we can't say it's rare. It's definitely not Aaron Donald rare.
And it's gonna continue as NFL offenses continue to be led into a new era innovative minds like Pederson and McVay. The college QBs that have been successful in wide open offenses suddenly can now come to the NFL and thrive.
That opens up the QB talent pool and ultimately works to decrease the rareness of finding a franchise QB.
It is a historical fact as zn points out that starting QBs get 2nd contracts (with the exception of Bortles, more on that below.) The past is what it is. But in looking at the future and current trends, I see some changes on the horizon.
I see more teams doing like Jacksonville and moving on from their marginal starter in Bortles. One can say that he isn't a starter but that would require a subjective judgement to be true. Objectively, he has started his entire career. Therefore he is and was a starter. Yet Jax deemed him not worth it.
The clearly elite QBs will always get paid; it's the middle of the pack QBs that I think will be threatened in the near future.
